It's apparent that the Indianapolis Colts' success in 2026 lies heavily on quarterback Daniel Jones' shoulders.
The Indianapolis Colts' 2025 season began unlike any other since the days of Peyton Manning.
Going into their bye week with a league-best 8-2 record, the offense was on a historic pace, led by resurgent quarterback Daniel Jones and running back Jonathan Taylor, both of whom had worked their way into the NFL's MVP discussion.
However, Jones began to break down, first dealing with a fractured left fibula that he played through before his right Achilles tendon gave way, ending his season in Week 14. While the Colts were treading water due to other injuries, the loss of Jones proved too much to overcome, and they lost their final seven games.
The collapse and missing the playoffs for a fifth straight year gave many in the fanbase all they needed to say it was time for the Colts to clean house and start over. However, internally, the Colts felt the injuries ruined what started out as a magical season.
As a result, the Colts pushed all their metaphorical chips to the center of the table and doubled down on what they believed were their strong suits in 2025, heading into the 2026 season.
Arguably the Colts' biggest offseason move was re-signing Jones to a new two-year deal, potentially worth up to $100 million.
While Jones is returning from a major injury, the Colts have faith that he will rebound in a strong way. However, their 2026 season now hinges on whether or not Jones is successful.
CBS Sports' Tyler Sullivan outlined the Colts' best- and worst-case scenarios for the season, and both revolved around Jones.
"Best-case: Daniel Jones is ready to roll for Week 1 despite suffering an Achilles tear last season, and the Colts quarterback picks up where he left off. Jones continues to enjoy his late-career revival in Indy and has the team atop the AFC South standings for the first time since 2014, when Andrew Luck was playing quarterback."
"Worst-case: The resurgence Jones enjoyed before his injury last season never returns. He isn't able to rekindle the magic from the first half of 2025, and it shakes confidence in him as Indy's long-term option at quarterback. The organization falls out of the playoff race and finds itself in the familiar position of wondering whether its franchise quarterback is even on the roster."
If the Colts' best-case scenario rings true, and they make the playoffs by way of an AFC South title, then get ready for more of general manager Chris Ballard, head coach Shane Steichen, and Jones. This is Ballard's final year on his contract, so the Colts could feel compelled to sign him to a new deal that ties him to Steichen, whose deal is through the 2028 season. Jones could also get another extension, as his current deal is through 2027.
However, in Sullivan's worst-case scenario, where Jones falters and the Colts miss the playoffs for a sixth consecutive year, the writing appears to be on the wall of what would lay ahead.
Ballard and Steichen were retained by Colts Owner & CEO Carlie Irsay-Gordon despite last season's issues, but with a caveat.
"Even though we didn't get the results we expected, I'm confident in what we're building and how we're building it," Irsay-Gordon said the day after the season ended. "So with that said, Chris will continue as our general manager, and Shane will continue as our head coach for this next season.
"We have been very clear with Chris and Shane that giving them another opportunity means that the sense of urgency for them to deliver and perform has never been higher. Chris and Shane are both capable of facing this challenge head-on and finding a way to achieve the results that our fans deserve, which is winning games, getting to the postseason, and ultimately winning championships."
In 2026, the Colts are in a unique position to either surge ahead as serious AFC title contenders or begin a rebuild next offseason.
Jones plays a significant part in that.
