Projecting Keenan Allen's Role in Colts' Offense

The Indianapolis Colts finally made a move at wide receiver this offseason, signing veteran Keenan Allen this week to a one-year deal worth up to $8.3 million.

Allen, 34, reunites with Colts head coach Shane Steichen, a coach he spent seven years with in San Diego/Los Angeles early in his career. 

This signing brought cheers from Colts fans across the country, but many outside voices (particularly in the fantasy football community) are skeptical. There has been a lot of excitement about expanded roles for Josh Downs and Alec Pierce in the offense, and signing a player who had 122 targets last year could (in theory) limit their uptick in usage. 

So today, let’s quell some of those worries and theorize about what type of role Allen could play in the Colts’ offense and what exactly he’s going to be asked to do for the team. 

Veteran pass catcher Michael Pittman Jr. was traded away this offseason, mainly so the Colts could save $29 million against the cap. While that was ultimately the correct and necessary move for the offense, it left a void in the passing game. Pittman filled a niche role for the team, and that role was targeted 111 times in 17 games played last year. 

Even with projecting more usage for Downs and Pierce, there needed to be another player to fill the void in the short area of the field. That’s where Allen steps in. Pittman had 75 targets last season under 10 air yards (10th most in the NFL), serving as a valuable chain mover and pace-setter for the offense on early downs. Allen eclipsed those numbers even, seeing 92 targets in that area of the field (3rd most in the NFL). 

The routes that these two players were asked to run last year were quite similar: hitch, drag, slant, and the occasional bang-8 or post to keep the defense honest. Both players offer a similar skill set that projects well to this role, and both thrived for their respective squads. 

The Colts simply needed a player willing and able to be an underneath security blanket against zone coverage, and now they have that in Allen. He slides in as the Z receiver on 11 personnel passing-down plays, with the potential to play some slot snaps if need be. In this regard, Allen is exactly what the Colts needed. 

When it comes to purely running routes and catching the football, Allen is a near-perfect replacement for Pittman, but playing wide receiver is more than that. Blocking, for instance, is a major deciding factor when it comes to how many snaps a receiver is going to play, and Allen falls a bit short of Pittman in that category. 

As a result, Pittman appeared in 919 offensive snaps last year while Allen only played in 630. That disparity can be explained by how often each player was on the field in run-personnel snaps. Allen had 500 snaps played in 11 personnel last year, which was good for 79.4% of his overall snaps played. Pittman appeared in 627 such snaps, which was only 68.2% of his overall snaps. 

With Steichen’s recent historical trend of moving away from 11 personnel and more towards a multiple tight end offense, this could limit Allen’s overall snaps next season. We can even look further into the two players’ snaps and find more discrepancies in their overall usage. 

For instance, 28.7% of Allen’s overall routes run last year came on late downs (3rd or 4th down), which was one of the higher rates in the league. Pittman only had 16.4% of his overall routes come on late downs. Allen was also run blocking on 21.6% of his overall snaps, while Pittman was out there run blocking on a staggering 37.4% of his snaps. 

It’s these differences, along with Steichen’s growing fascination with 12 and 13 personnel, that lead me to believe that Allen’s role will be a bit different from what Pittman offered last year. While Pittman was a limited player as a route runner, he offered a lot of value as a base-down weapon and run blocker for the offense. 

Allen simply isn’t that at this point in his career. He’s closer to a sixth man who’s asked to come off the bench and hit corner threes than a limited (but valuable) starter in the rotation. The Colts have never been an offense that asks players to be something that they are not, and that is why I still believe the plan is to replace Pittman in the aggregate. 

While Allen is perfectly coded to replace Pittman as a pass catcher, players like Ashton Dulin and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine are more than capable of replacing the early-down work. Dulin should get a good amount of looks in run personnel looks due to his speed, his blocking, and his added threat as a runner with the ball in his hands. 

Unless injuries pile up, Allen should see roughly 500-550 snaps in the Colts’ offense this season, which is a far cry from Pittman’s 919 in 2025. This will, in turn, limit some of Allen’s targets but also keep him fresh for when he is needed most on third downs and in end-of-half situations. This signing is more for a high-leverage utility player rather than for a starter this late in training camp. 

Overall, this signing is a really strong fit for the Colts. They already had guys in-house who could replace some of Pittman’s early-down production; they just needed a bit more of a boost in obvious passing situations. The Colts now add one of the more productive third-down receivers from a year ago into the fold and make their offense that much better on money downs. 

My expectation for Allen this year is a solid fourth option in the offense with some high-leverage moments as a pass catcher. His overall volume shouldn’t eclipse Pierce, Downs, or Warren, but he does bring a steady floor as the next man up after that big three. A rough projection puts him around 40-50 catches and 450-500 receiving yards, in my opinion. 

If he hits those numbers and the projected top three of the Colts’ pass-catching room stay healthy, then this team should be in good shape for 2026.