Was Colts QB Daniel Jones' Resurgence Legit, or 'Blip?'

The Indianapolis Colts might finally be off the quarterback carousel, or at least they hope they are.

After Andrew Luck abruptly retired in 2019, the Colts have had a revolving door of starters since, opting for reclamation projects, short-term legends, and even a top-five draft pick.

It's with one of those reclamation projects that the Colts feel they finally got it right.

The Colts signed former New York Giants first-round pick Daniel Jones to a one-year deal last offseason after he flamed out after six years. He won the starting quarterback job over Anthony Richardson Sr. (the top-five pick), and performed better than he had at any stage of his football career.

The party ended, however, when Jones tore an Achilles tendon in Week 14, in which he is still recovering from the surgery, but should be ready for Week 1 of the coming season.

ESPN NFL analyst Ben Solak examined several breakouts around the league and whether they were legitimate and would be sustained, or just a blip/brief surge.

For Jones, who flashed so brightly that his name came up in some MVP conversations, Solak believes this was only momentary brilliance, albeit still a sign of progress. As such, Solak labeled Jones' breakout a "super blip," with a caveat

"Had Jones finished the 2025 season, his 'blip or trend' debate would have been a featured piece of offseason discourse," Solak wrote. "But we didn't get the full picture.

"Jones came out the gates hot -- just a blistering pace. Through the first seven games, he led the league in dropback success rate (56.1%) and EPA per dropback (0.30), with a cool 71.0% completion percentage and 7.9 yards per dropback. It's not just that the Colts and coach Shane Steichen had built around a midtier quarterback the way previous schemers had done -- they were just doing it better than any QB reclamation had gone before."

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Jones' performance took the NFL world by storm. Despite not finishing the season, he set new career-best marks in completion percentage (68.0%), pass success rate (52.0%), yards per attempt (8.1), yards per completion (11.9), yards per game (238.5), and passer rating (100.2). Plus, he was on pace to better just about any other notable personal statistic.

"Jones fractured his fibula before the Week 12 game against the Chiefs, then popped his Achilles in Week 14 against the Jaguars, ending his season," Solak said. "If a solution was lurking under the surface, Steichen and Jones never had the chance to debut it."

The Colts entered their bye week at 8-2, with a share of the NFL's best record, but returned to the field and dropped their final seven games. Jones started in the first three of those seven losses, but a solid argument could be made that had Jones not torn his Achilles, the Colts would ultimately have won enough games to get into the postseason. That goes double for avoiding injury to the fibula.

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"Jones' 2025 is obviously a blip," Solak continued. "He was not just singularly productive for his baseline but also historically productive among league passers. The undressing of that charade was well underway before he got hurt. The awful reality that he must now recover from an Achilles injury makes the bet that 2025 was a peak season even easier to make.

"With that said, for as blippy as this blip is ... Jones was never coached well in New York, and his immediate comfort in Steichen's offense is notable. He'll never again achieve those 2025 highs, but could he give the Colts what the Buccaneers have gotten from Baker Mayfield? I believe so. Should he rush back from the Achilles for fear of losing his opportunity in Indianapolis, he might put his entire career in jeopardy. But if he comes back healthy, he has proved he can do enough good to stoke a roaring Colts offense. And that should not be discounted entirely."

Although it's fair to say that Jones' 2025 performance was a blip and that he won't perform at a historic level from here on out, Solak does make the fair assessment that Jones will at least be better in his remaining time in Indianapolis than he was in New York.

Jones will always hold a mental edge on his opponent because of his preparation, but his partnership with Colts head coach Shane Steichen as a playcaller cannot be discounted.