Breaking down the three biggest matchups to watch when the Washington Commanders face the Indianapolis Colts in London on Sunday
The Washington Commanders caught a break last Sunday, beating Seattle as Marcus Mariota managed the game well enough and the defense came through when it mattered. The Colts have leaned on Jonathon Taylor all season and gotten a steady hand from Daniel Jones at quarterback, but they can't seem to close games out.
Sunday's matchup at Wembley Stadium could be a turning point for either team — or a deeper slide for the one that blinks first. Here are the three matchups that will determine which direction this one goes.
1. Commanders Front 7 vs. Jonathon Taylor and the Colts' Ground Game
Washington's run defense has been one of the quiet stories of the early season. The Commanders are holding opponents to just 82 rushing yards per game, good for third in the NFL. That matters a great deal this week because Indianapolis isn't shy about who they want to build around. Taylor has been fed the ball consistently all season — 66 carries for 258 yards and four touchdowns through three weeks — and head coach Shane Steichen has made no secret that Taylor is the engine of this offense.
The problem for the Colts is that Taylor hasn't been able to find a rhythm against tough fronts. His yards per carry has dipped from 5.2 in Week 1 all the way down to three in Week 3 against Houston. Washington's front seven — anchored by Daron Payne, Javon Kinlaw, & Tim Settle — has the size and scheme discipline to make life difficult. If the Commanders can hold Taylor to a one-dimensional game the way the Texans did last Sunday, the Colts' offense loses its identity quickly.
Still, Taylor is the kind of back who can break one long run and change a game's complexion. Washington's linebackers need to be disciplined in their gaps and avoid overcommitting. One or two missed tackles could easily turn a quiet afternoon for Taylor into a 100-yard day. Washington’s run defense has been a top five unit through three weeks; let’s see if they continue that trend.
2. Commanders' Reshuffled Offensive Line Holding Up in Pass Protection
This is where Washington is most vulnerable heading into London. The reshuffled line wasn't perfect, but they got the job done.
Brandon Coleman continues to play well at left tackle. Sam Cosmi didn’t play against Seattle and will be missed again in London. It will come down to how well Nick Allegretti & Lucas Patrick hold up inside. The Commanders allowed some pressure in their first three games, and Mariota doesn't have Jayden Daniels' athleticism to escape a collapsing pocket. He needs time, clean reads and a line that can hold up for three to four seconds on passing downs. Expect Blough to use RPOs to help offset.
The good news is that Indianapolis ranks dead last in the NFL in total defense, allowing 417.3 yards per game, and ranks 32nd in pass defense. The pass rush isn't going to generate elite pressure numbers consistently. But even a middling front can make life miserable against a patchwork offensive line. Washington's linemen need to communicate well, stay sound in their sets, and give Mariota the clean pocket he needs to distribute the ball. A strong showing here would go a long way toward quieting concerns about the line's durability.
3. Can the Commanders Secondary Limit the Big Plays?
Washington's defense has a split personality this season. Against the run, they've been excellent. Against the pass, they've been exposed badly — ranked 31st in the NFL, surrendering 280.3 yards per game through the air and allowing a league-high seven touchdown passes in their first three games. Last week against Seattle, the secondary played better, but Jaxon Smith-Njigba still did damage.
Luckily for Washington, the Colts don’t have a JSN. Daniel Jones is not a gunslinger by nature, but he's a patient, experienced quarterback who will take what the defense gives him. If Washington's corners give too much cushion trying to prevent the big play, Jones will pick apart the intermediate zones all afternoon. If they press and gamble, they leave the top of the coverage exposed against a receiving corps that can run.
Amik Robertson was lights out against the Seahawks. Rasul Douglas had a solid performance. Mike Sainristil saw limited snaps, and he continued to struggle, grading out as the worst cornerback in consecutive weeks. I expect to see some more of Fabian Moreau. With Nick Cross out again, Jeremy Reaves and Quan Martin are critical. Jones won't beat you with his arm alone, but if this secondary is giving up explosive plays, even a game manager can put together a winning stat line. Cleaning up the big plays isn't optional this week — it's the difference between 2-2 and 1-3.
