Inside sources reveal a stark contrast between Pro Football Focus’s predictions and reality, exposing flawed scheme assumptions and overlooked roster additions for the 2026 Cowboys.
FRISCO - With the help of some generous guidance from here inside The Star, I've been able to piece together what I think is a realistic projection of what the starting lineups might look like in 2026 under coach Brian Schottenheimer on offense and under new coordinator Christian Parker on defense.
And let me politely state that my projection and the Cowboys' starting lineup projection from Pro Football Focus don't exactly align.
And why?
Well, because theirs is wrong, in five major ways.
My projections ...
OFFENSE
QB: Dak Prescott
RB: Javonte Williams
WR: CeeDee Lamb
WR: George Pickens
WR: Ryan Flournoy
TE: Jake Ferguson
LT: Tyler Guyton
LG: Tyler Smith
C: Cooper Beebe
RG: Tyler Booker
RT: Terence Steele
DEFENSE
OLB/EDGE: Rashan Gary
DL: Quinnen Williams
DL: Kenny Clark
OLB/EDGE: Donovan Ezeiruaku
LB: DeMarvion Overshown
LB: Dee Winters
CB: DaRon Bland
CB: Shavon Revel Jr.
DB Caleb Downs
S: Jalen Thompson
S: Malik Hooker
It gets a little tricky on defense because of the change to scheme (a "3-4 Hybrid'') and the versatility needed there - which includes even new names for positions.
But none of this is tricky enough to justify PFF's five glaring errors. Which are ...
1 - They project the No. 3 wide receiver position to be won by Marquez Valdes-Scantling ... thus showing a lack of awareness of the existence of Ryan Flournoy. (Not to mention KaVontae Turpin.)
2 - They think the Cowboys are going to be running a base 4-3 defense, as you see below in the PFF graphic.
Parker will oversee multiple formations. But Dallas will be in some form of a Nickel defense (featuring five DBs) about 70 percent of the time.
3 - They think Marist Liufau is going to win a starting role. That's in part based on the wrong-headed assumption that Dallas' defense will feature three linebackers. But even if that does happen at times ... Liufau isn't slated to be that guy.
Does PFF not know that he's being asked to change positions and so he'll be an outside linebacker/EDGE this year?
4 - PFF is putting Cobie Durant ahead of Shavon Revel. ... and while this is possible - the former Rams standout has much more experience that Revel - it doesn't reflect what Dallas hopes happens ... which is that as a promising third-round pick, Revel blossoms into a first-teamer who limits Durant to being a rotational helper.
5 - And finally, PFF has Jalen Thompson as a non-starter. What?
At safety, Malik Hooker is listed as a starter. But he's listed as being ahead of Thompson, who got a $33 million deal over three years in free agency to jump from Arizona to Big D.
The plan includes rookie Caleb Downs as a do-everything DB, and includes Thompson ahead of Hooker, with the latter veteran holding off another experienced newcomer in P.J. Locke as one of the five secondary starters.
In the end, projecting the Dallas defensive starters can be challenging due to all of the change - but not so challenging as to goof up more than one-third of the positions.
But here, PFF whiffs so badly that it even screws up projecting the Dallas offense starters. ... a bad sign for the site's overall credibility.
