A 'freaky' defensive talent awaits, but the Cowboys' draft-day price to acquire him, based on established trade value, will demand a shocking sacrifice.
FRISCO - The "Trade Value Chart,'' first implemented over 30 years ago by the Dallas Cowboys and coach Jimmy Johnson after a Jerry Jones ownership lieutenant named Mike McCoy created it, isn't gospel.
But it is a guide - a guide that is utilized, in one form or another by all 32 NFL teams, in order to help them speak the same language when it comes to trade ideas.
And when we, fans and media, go off half-cocked with wildly intriguing trade proposals?
Well, it's a "tell'' when our ideas don't match up in any way with the Trade Value Chart.
First, again, to understand the origin: Before the early 1990s, there was no "value'' assigned to picks. So it was simply guesswork. But the late McCoy - an oil-and-gas genius who came to Dallas to work and office alongside Jones when he bought the Cowboys in 1990 - did the research that did indeed assign value.
And to this day, the idea of a "fair trade'' is as simple as checking the chart, or one of the many modern variations on it.
As I often put it, "four quarters must equal a dollar.''
That brings us to the idea of Dallas moving up from pick No. 12 in this NFL Draft, with scouts salivating over what defensive studs like Ohio State's Arvell Reese and Texas Tech's David Bailey might do in a Cowboys uniform.
Our friend Joey McGuire, the head coach at Tech, thinks the EDGE Bailey is the best defensive player in this draft. Many others, including The Athletic's Bruce Feldman, ranks Bailey right behind Reese.
And And The Athletic is urging a Dallas trade-up. is urging a Dallas trade-up.
The site's projected trade: Dallas receives pick No. 3; Arizona receives picks Nos. 12 (first round) and 92 (third round).
And I've got news for you: The Cowboys would/should do this in a heartbeat.
Why? Because they'd be getting way more than "four quarters'' in exchange for their "dollar.''
Oh, and the same math applies to any similar trade-up ideas on Reese.
First, to what Feldman writes about Reese ...
"I think this is the surest bet for future stardom in this draft. ... He’s explosive — he ran a 4.46 40 at the NFL Scouting Combine — and he strikes violently on the field with elite knock-back. ... This guy is an alien ... He is really freaky. He’s different.”
And Feldman's scouting report on Bailey ...
"The Cowboys ... would love for Reese to fall here, but Bailey is another true difference-maker ... . He’s just a different dude. ... Virtually unblockable ... Ran a 4.50 40 and vertical jumped 35 inches and he had 14.5 sacks, tied for No. 1 in the FBS. ... He’s a complete player. Really special.”
Great! So how do the Cowboys get one of them?
Well, not by offering picks Nos. 12 and 92. Because that ain't even close.
Here's that "TVC'' math:
Pick No. 2 is worth 2,600 points.
Pick No. 3 is worth 2,200 points.
To get there, Dallas would offer ...
Pick No. 12 (worth 1,200 points) and pick No. 92 (worth 132 points) = 1,332 points.
That's about 1,000 points short of being able to do these deals!
To get to the second or third overall slots in the NFL Draft? The only way Dallas has enough ammunition in this NFL Draft is to give up No. 12 (1,200 points) and No. 20 (850 points) = 2,050 points.
The Cowboys would still be short. But, if the Jets (at No. 2) or the Cardinals (at No. 3) would like two first-round prospects instead of one? Or if they aren't in love with Reese or Bailey or whomever is there (unlikely as that is)?
Maybe they listen to a Dallas offer of two first-round picks.
Again, the "Jimmy Johnson Trade Value Chart'' (as it's come to be not-quite-accurately known) is the guide, not the gospel.
But if the Cowboys (and fans and media) want to be taken seriously on NFL Draft trade proposals? We gotta be able to do the math.