Critics blamed Dallas’ sloppy Week 1 loss on a "soft" summer, but a 32-team analysis reveals whether benching Dak Prescott actually put the Cowboys at a disadvantage.
You have heard the complaint.
You have voiced the complaint.
NFL veteran coaches and players have done the same.
And it goes something like this ...
"The reason the Dallas Cowboys looked so disorganized and sloppy and wimpy in Week 1 at the Giants is because they played ir safe and sat out all of their starters all preseason!''
As we - and the Cowboys themselves - scramble for answers .... Why did Dallas look so awful in a 28-20 opener at New York ... one thesis has to do with the "softness'' of the summer.
NFL rules nowadays prohibit teams from working and hitting like they used to at training camp. And moreover, salaries and the NFL cap create a situation in which an injury to, say, $60 million QB Dak Prescott, would create catastrophic results.
Dallas coach Brian Schottenheimer is defending his mothballs decision, and ownerJerry Jones said not playing stars in preseason is "the right way to go.''
On the other hand ... does Dak (and his ilk) sitting out preseason games result in a Week 1 disadvantage?
That's the theory.
So ... we conducted a study.
We wanted to put the preseason-starter discussion into one clean 32-team comparison. For consistency, we used one simple definition: “Played starters in the preseason” = the team’s regular starting quarterback took at least one preseason snap.''
That gives us a clean, objective dividing line instead of trying to decide whether three, five, or eight other starters count as “playing the starters.”
Here are all 32 teams and their Week 1 results:
Team Starting QB Played? Week 1 Result Record
Arizona Cardinals YES Beat Chargers 26–14 1-0
Atlanta Falcons YES Lost to Steelers 20–13 0-1
Baltimore Ravens NO Beat Colts 41–23 1-0
Buffalo Bills YES Beat Texans 36–31 1-0
Carolina Panthers YES Lost to Bears 59–37 0-1
Chicago Bears YES Beat Panthers 59–37 1-0
Cincinnati Bengals YES Beat Buccaneers 33–27 1-0
Cleveland Browns YES Lost to Jaguars 34–10 0-1
Dallas Cowboys NO Lost to Giants 28–20 0-1
Denver Broncos YES Lost to Chiefs 31–10 0-1
Detroit Lions NO Beat Saints 31–30 OT 1-0
Green Bay Packers YES Lost to Vikings 39–22 0-1
Houston Texans YES Lost to Bills 36–31 0-1
Indianapolis Colts NO Lost to Ravens 41–23 0-1
Jacksonville Jaguars NO Beat Browns 34–10 1-0
Kansas City Chiefs NO Beat Broncos 31–10 1-0
Las Vegas Raiders YES Beat Dolphins 27–13 1-0
Los Angeles Chargers YES Lost to Cardinals 26–14 0-1
Los Angeles Rams NO Lost to 49ers 27–7 0-1
Miami Dolphins YES Lost to Raiders 27–13 0-1
Minnesota Vikings YES Beat Packers 39–22 1-0
New England Patriots NO Lost to Seahawks 13–10 0-1
New Orleans Saints NO Lost to Lions 31–30 OT 0-1
New York Giants YES Beat Cowboys 28–20 1-0
New York Jets YES Beat Titans 23–10 1-0
Philadelphia Eagles NO Beat Commanders 24–22 1-0
Pittsburgh Steelers NO Beat Falcons 20–13 1-0
San Francisco 49ers YES Beat Rams 27–7 1-0
Seattle Seahawks NO Beat Patriots 13–10 1-0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers YES Lost to Bengals 33–27 0-1
Tennessee Titans YES Lost to Jets 23–10 0-1
Washington Commanders YES Lost to Eagles 24–22 0-1
The numbers ...
A total of 20 teams played their regular starting quarterback at some point during the preseason.
Their Week 1 resulting record is 9-11 (.450).
A total of 12 teams gave their regular starting quarterback zero preseason snaps. Week 1 record: 7-5 (.583)
So through Week 1, the teams that completely sat their starting quarterbacks during the preseason actually had the better winning percentage!
Now to the Important Caveats as to what this proves ...
This does not prove that sitting starters is better.
It is only one regular-season week, so the sample size is extremely small. Strength of opponent, injuries, home-field advantage, roster quality, coaching changes and dozens of other factors affect these games.
Also, to repeat, this comparison uses the starting quarterback as the measuring stick. A team listed as “NO” may still have played other offensive or defensive starters in the preseason. Likewise, a team listed as “YES” may have only given its quarterback a handful of snaps.
To the bottom line: There exists no evidence that "playing your starters'' in the preseason helps you win in Week 1. ... which leaves my long-standing belief about how to approach preseason games intact.
To wit ...
The only thing we know for sure is that if you play your superstar QB (and maybe his ilk) in preseason, and he gets injured ... you're screwed.
Which is why - along with these win/loss numbers that support my thesis - stars shouldn't play in meaningless games.
