
It's about time to start purchasing a 2026 calendar as we move through the holiday season and ring in the new year. Time can't move quickly enough for some fans of the Dallas Cowboys who are ready to forget about the 2025 season.
I guess I'll be the bearer of bad news for those by remembering that the Cowboys do still have two football games to play in Week 17 at the Washington Commanders and Week 18 at the New York Giants.
But, since neither of those teams can surpass Dallas in the NFC (and the Cowboys can't extend the 20-year streak of a unique division winner) we can get a rough estimate of the teams that will be lined up for the 2026 campaign. One many have already turned the page to once Dallas became no longer eligible for this year's playoffs.
The NFL Draft process is usually next on the to-do list to begin the new year, but the Cowboys' exact first-round positioning won't be set until later. Dallas' first of two first-rounders, we know, will be no lower than No. 18 after officially missing the playoffs. The second will come down to how the 9-5-1 Green Bay Packers finish.
Crafting the NFL schedule isn't exactly rocket science, but it can be hard to understand at times. The 18-week period includes six standard division games at home and away venues, a four-game slate with another division in the same conference and opposite conference, two rotating intra-conference games and an added inter-conference game, with the latter two rotations depending on division ranking at the end of the year.
For this year, the Cowboys faced the NFC East as usual, along with the entire NFC North where they went 0-3-1 in games against Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit and Minnesota. From the AFC, Dallas went 2-2 against the AFC South (Las Vegas, Kansas City, Denver, LA Chargers).
The two other NFC games were against Carolina and Arizona (Dallas tumbled to an 0-2 record there) and the final game came against the New York Jets from the AFC East (a rare resounding win).
Now what games can we expect in 2026? And how blurry is next year's playoff outlook?
Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders, New York Giants
Each opponent gets a home and away game against Dallas, as you know. At the moment, half of the Cowboys' wins have come against its division, with there being a strong possibility of ending the season (though unceremoniously) 5-1 against their rivals. Finishing the year on a five-game division win streak is at least one thing to grow optimism from.
Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams
The last time Dallas faced the entire NFC West in the regular season was 2023, meaning they are due up again three years later. The hosting matchup will be opposite of what they were in the last cycle, putting Arizona and San Francisco as home games and Los Angeles and Seattle on the road (Arizona at home this season was a throw-in NFC game, so is not affected by the division matchup pattern).
This will be a tough draw for the Cowboys as three of these teams will finish 2025 with 10 or more wins and be in the playoffs. Potentially the top two seeds in the entire conference in this year's postseason will be road opponents for Dallas in 2026 from this division. Gulp.
Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts
You'd have to go back to 2022 for the last time Dallas drew the entire AFC South as their full inter-conference division slate. The Cowboys went 3-1 against these teams that year.
Similarly, the teams who last hosted each other will be reversed, which brings current division-leader Jacksonville and basement-dweller Tennessee to Arlington next year. The Cowboys will travel to in-state foe Houston and historic Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
This was one of the more surprising conferences in the league as another with the chance to produce three 10-win franchises, though Indianapolis could have gotten there sooner if their entire quarterback room didn't suffer injuries. This group also houses the most recent No. 1 overall pick in Titans quarterback Cam Ward.
Now is where things can get hard to nail home with certainty. Dallas' other two NFC games will come against teams from the remaining two divisions it will not play in their entirety - so in this cycle, the South and North.
This year, the runner-up in the NFC South will either be the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Carolina Panthers. We project this to be a home game for Dallas in 2026.
Tampa Bay had a strong start to the season winning a string of one-possession games, but they've jockeyed with Carolina for the division lead much of the way since. The Panthers won their only game against Tampa Bay thus far two weeks ago, and their final matchup, in the Sunshine State, will be the regular-season finale, likely bringing major implications with it.
For Dallas, landing with the Bucs would be a fun new flavor as native-Texan Baker Mayfield would return to his home state. Otherwise, it's the return of Rico Dowdle, who already caught the Cowboys without their seatbelt on earlier this season in a roadtrip to Charlotte...
The road game to close out NFC play (the order of these games, of course, is not set until the summer) will be between either the Green Bay Packers or the Chicago Bears.
Like the South, this division winner is not determined with two crucial games remaining. In fact, its Philadelphia who is the only team in the entire NFL to lock up their division by the end of Week 16.
Chicago's walk-off win over rival Green Bay clinched a playoff berth this past week, but the Bears still need to win at least once to seal the division title. The Packers, thanks to a series split with the Bears, need to win their remaining two games (vs. Baltimore and at Minnesota) and for the Bears to lose out. That would give Green Bay five losses to Chicago's six because of ... that pesky 40-40 tie in Week 4 against Dallas.
Who would've thought that finish would have such drastic postseason weight? And how none of it would have any impact on the Cowboys!
Lastly, the 17th game comes against a second-place finisher from a conference Dallas is not yet scheduled to play. In this cycle, its the AFC North with whoever is worse between the Pittsburgh Steelers or Baltimore Ravens.
These two make up the top of the worst-performing AFC division, which saw unfortunate luck with major injuries. That's especially the case in Baltimore with quarterback Lamar Jackson and a load of defenders missing a lot of time. In the Steel City, Aaron Rodgers will turn 43 in the final month of the season and potentially start the year, again, as the oldest player in the league (that is, if Philip Rivers doesn't carry on his rekindled romance in Indy).
We have this one as a home affair for the Cowboys, giving Dallas nine games at AT&T Stadium and eight games on the road. ... maybe the only real "advantage'' in what looks like a tough slate.
However, owner Jerry Jones hasn't shot down the idea of trying to make "America's Team" the "World's Team" by playing in an international game. Mexico City has been mentioned as a possibility as the league continually looks for greater exposure opportunities year after year.
Dallas generally pulls a massive audience from south of the Rio Grande, so we can understand the appeal. In terms of fitting that into a schedule, that's a part of the formula that's far beyond my pay grade.
What are your thoughts on these potential opponents for your Cowboys in 2026?
Says Dak Prescott: "I'm going to keep working. This team is going to keep working. The organization, obviously, is going to do things in the offseason and hopefully everything is just building for us to have a better year than we did this year. And I know, for myself, and anybody that I'm leading or that's following me, that'll be the message."
Let us know what you think in the CowboysRoundtable community below!
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