The Dallas Cowboys' Week 7 matchup against the Washington Commanders seems like the pivot point, a true, “you don’t have to go home but you can’t stay here” moment for their postseason hopes. We’ve laid out keys to victory, done a postmortem on Week 6, and previewed this divisional matchup.

With that in mind, let’s narrow it down a bit more and go over why the Cowboys will win, and what will have happened if they lose. 

The Cowboys Will Win If…..

The Cowboys will win if they can pressure Jayden Daniels and get the run game back on track. I know, I say this every week, but it proves true most weeks! Consider the following table:

Until this past week, there was a clear correlation between the team’s ability to get to the quarterback and their chances of winning. As we mentioned in the keys to victory, Jayden Daniels goes from No. 4 to No. 32 in PFF grades when facing no pressure vs. when he’s under pressure. 

That discrepancy is the largest in the league and coincides with a drop in completion percentage from 66.7% to 48.4%. He’s truly a different quarterback when facing pressure.

Clearly though, there’s an outlier in our whole “the better the pass rush grade the more Dallas wins” theory, but it’s one that I believe can be explained fairly easily. 

Up until Week 6, Dallas had a rushing offense grade between 69.3 and 80.5, showing they’d been at least above average all year and providing an effective tool with which to finish drives. In that Week 6 loss though, they accumulated only 31 total rushing yards and a 48.2 rushing grade.

This ineffectiveness made finishing drives difficult, leading to the team kicking two field goals under 30 yards and allowing the Panthers to hang around. The team needs an effective ground game to take pressure off of both Dak Prescott and the defense and, if they can wed the level of effectiveness they enjoyed on the ground early on with the type of pass rush they’ve shown lately, I believe they’ll win on Sunday.

The Cowboys Will Lose If…

The Cowboys will lose if they can’t run the ball on Sunday. You may be asking yourself, wouldn’t a poor pass rush also sink their chances? It’s a fair question. But for as much as that table above shows how important the pass rush is, it clearly shows that an ineffective ground game is an overriding factor of a good pass rush. 

To put it more simply, Dallas has lost while having their pass rush be effective, but they’ve never won with an ineffective ground game. Additionally, they’ve never won while having neither. 

For as much weight as Dak has carried this season, even he needs help on the ground. If he doesn’t get it during Week 7, expect a long day.