The Miami Dolphins have not made a formal decision on Tua Tagovailoa, and all signs point to the quarterback being released.
The Miami Dolphins have found themselves in a tough position with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. After handing out a four-year, $212.4 million deal in July 2024, the team is now faced with the reality of that deal.
Tagovailoa is owed $54 million in guaranteed money in 2026, and the Dolphins have been trying to find a trade partner, but absorbing that contract is something most teams are unlikely to do. Considering the uphill battle of a trade, all signs are pointing to a release.
Earlier this week, during the 2026 NFL Combine, Dolphins general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan indicated that "everything was on the table" for Tagovailoa. While part of that means attempting to find a trade partner, the reality of the situation is that the team would likely have to cut its losses and move on.
By releasing Tagovailoa, the $99.2 million that it will cost will be spread over the next two seasons, if he is designated a post-June 1 cut. That appears to be the case of where the team is headed, per ESPN's Dan Graziano.
"The Dolphins continue to tell people that they've had trade talks with teams and haven't given up on trying to trade Tagovailoa, even though that would mean picking up a significant portion of his $54 million in fully guaranteed 2026 salary. But based on my conversations with other teams, I'm skeptical, and I expect Miami to release Tagovailoa by the third day of the league year (when $3 million of his 2027 salary would become fully guaranteed). The Dolphins will almost certainly designate him as a post-June 1 release to help defray some of the $99.2 million in dead money it will cost to release him," Graziano wrote.
The Dolphins are releasing Tagovailoa or preparing to is not that big of a secret or a shocking development, simply due to that large $54 million guaranteed price tag. Releasing him as a post-June 1 at least allows the team to pay around $55 million now, and the remaining $44 million in 2027.
Miami is simply doing what the Denver Broncos did when they released Russell Wilson; the cap hit is just more significant for the Dolphins. A release is good for both parties, as Sullivan and the front office can simply move on and focus on the rebuild, while Tagovailoa can then sign with whatever team he wishes to.
This does not mean that a trade partner cannot be found. That could still very well be in play, but teams actually wanting Tagovailoa might also just wait for his release so they can sign him at a much cheaper discount.
It is a shame that Tagovailoa regressed in the manner he did, as he led the league in completion percentage, passer rating, and passing yards in his career. A change of scenery and a new opportunity might also be beneficial to the still-young passer.