AFC South surged in 2025 and could be NFL’s toughest division in 2026, with three playoff contenders, improved rosters and a more challenging schedule ahead.
The AFC South proved to be one of the best divisions in all of the NFL last season. Combined, the Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans, finished the 2025 season tied for first in the AFC in regular season winning percentage (.529).
With the Jaguars and Texans both advancing to the 2025 NFL Playoffs, it marked the first time two teams from the AFC South represented the division in the postseason since 2020 when the Titans and Colts played in the playoffs. Last season was also the first time two teams finished the regular season with 10 or more wins since 2020 (Colts, Titans 11) as the Jaguars registered 13 and the Texans finished with 12 victories.
All but one team (Titans) in the division exceeded their preseason projected win totals and looked like a division that might get three teams into the playoffs before Colts starting quarterback Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending Achilles injury mid-season.
The Jaguars ended the Texans’ recent stranglehold on the division title by winning more than 10 games in a season for the first time since 2007, but Houston got the last word by being the only team of the two to notch a playoff win last season. While Jacksonville is the reigning division champ, Houston is the favorite to win its ninth AFC South title and have the 12th-best odds of raising the Lombardi Trophy next February.
Heading into the 2026 season the Jaguars, Texans and Colts remain playoff contenders after re-loading their respective rosters through free agency and the draft. The Titans also continued to re-build their roster with several impactful draft picks, but with the addition of new head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, the AFC South could be in the running for the best division in the NFL in 2026.
While some might point to three of the four teams in the division (Jaguars, Colts, Titans) being in the top 10 for easiest schedule last season, the AFC South was tied for third for the most combined wins with 36 despite each team playing a minimum of six opponents who had played in the postseason the season prior.
This season, the division will see fewer opponents who played in the 2025 playoffs, but according to Warren Sharp, the AFC South’s path to the postseason won’t be easy. According to Sharp’s annual NFL Strength of Schedule, only one team (Colts, 9th easiest) will be in the top 10 of the league’s easiest schedules for 2026.
The Titans will jump from the third-easiest schedule in 2025 to the 13th easiest this season and the Jaguars will face the 15th easiest schedule after facing the eighth-easiest last season. The Texans will face the sixth-hardest schedule next season and will face six opponents that appeared in the postseason.
The Jaguars (9.5), Colts (8.5) and Titans (6.5) come into 2026 with expected win totals more than the year prior while the Texans are projected at 9.5 wins, the same as wins prior to the 2025 season.
Although the AFC South will face a tougher schedule, collectively, than last season, the division has the makings of being the “toughest division in the NFL” in 2026.
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