Trevor Lawrence is a long shot to win the NFL's Most Valuable Player award for the 2025 season.

With his odds at roughly 300-to-1, the Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback's name doesn't often get mentioned among this season's top MVP  lookers. Except maybe in Duval County, Florida.

When the top vote-getter is announced on Thursday, Feb. 5, ahead of Super Bowl Sunday, the honoree is expected to be either Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford or New England Patriots QB Drake Maye. Both are worthy candidates who've had extraordinary seasons, leading their respective teams to exceptional heights in the regular season.

Going into the season, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen was the odds-on favorite to continue his reign as league MVP. The sharps also liked Baltimore Ravens quarterback and two-time MVP Lamar Jackson, at least until Week 3, when the Ravens (8-9) were 1-2, headed for a four-game skid, and already in the thick of injuries and disarray that has now consumed them. 

Nor has Allen got a chance to repeat, as the Bills (12-5) didn't win the AFC East, and better opponents seemed to have figured him out this season. Oddsmakers have moved Allen from +2500 to +10000 to repeat as MVP.

But it's Allen that Lawrence most resembles as a potential MVP this year, rather than the current favorites.

Traditionalists -- that is, those who prefer their most-valuable QB candidates to be pocket-passers -- including three-time MVP Tom Brady, like Stafford.

The former Pats QB, Fox NFL analyst, and current minority owner of the Las Vegas Raiders explained his reasoning on Fox NFL Sunday, calling Stafford "absolutely remarkable."

"Forty-six touchdowns for any quarterback -- that's a dream season," Brady said. "He's been spectacular."

To clarify, that's 46 passing TDs -- a career high and the most in the NFL this season. Stafford also leads the league in passing yards (4,707) and passer rating (109.2). 

Maye leads the NFL with a 72-percent completion percentage, a QBR of 113.5, and passing yards per attempt at 8.9. He’s third in passing TD, with 31, and fourth in passing yards, with 4,394.

The Patriots (14-3) are the No. 2 seed in the AFC, and had the weakest schedule in the NFL this season, according the ESPN's Football Power Index. The Rams (12-5) are the fifth-seed in the NFC, and had the ninth toughest 2025 schedule.

Stafford will turn 38 two days before Super Bowl LX and has been in the league since 2009 -- that's 15 more years than Maye, 23, has taken snaps in the NFL.

Brady seems to like Old Man Stafford over the second-year upstart who now rules the turf Brady used to own.

"Drake’s got a long career ahead," he said. "I’m sure he’s going to have many opportunities."

Trevor Lawrence certainly has improved this season -- and has been the leader on the field of a remarkable turnaround for the Jaguars (13-4). Without a doubt, Jacksonville's No. 1 pick in the draft in 2021 is justifying the team's trust in and devotion to him.

However inconsistent Lawrence played in years past, his production this season has improved in almost every measure. He missed seven games to injuries in 2024, though he had been on pace to put up some similar numbers to what he's done this season. 

With 4,007 passing yards, a 60.9-percent completion rate, 29 passing TDs against 11 interceptions, Lawrence hasn't kept up with the NFL's best passing quarterbacks. 

His 82 carries for 459 yards and nine rushing TDs speak volumes about his versatility, and lift him to the category of dominating dual-threat quarterbacks the likes of Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. 

But Lawrence hasn't yet climbed the heights reached in previous seasons by Allen, who's 29 and has been in the NFL for eight years, and Jackson, who turned 30 today and also entered the NFL in the 2018 draft class.

In 2024, his MVP season, Allen had 3,731 passing yards (63.6-percent completion rate), 40 TDs (28 passing, 12 rushing), 6 interceptions, and 531 rushing yards, and led the Bills to a 13-4 record and two playoff wins. He obliterated Patrick Mahomes' record (231) for most total TDs in a player's first seven seasons, scoring 262, and became the first player with five consecutive seasons with 40-plus total TDs.

Lamar Jackson's 2023 was spectacular, earning him 49 of 50 first-place MVP votes. Perhaps the most dominant dual-threat quarterback of our era -- the first player with multiple seasons of over 3,000 passing and 800 rushing yards. Jackson had a career-high 67.2 percent completion rate, throwing for 3,678 yards and 24 TDs against 7 interceptions; he also rushed for 821 yards and 5 TDs.  He led the Ravens to a league-best 13-4 record that season. He received 49 of 50 first-place votes after showing significant growth as a passer while remaining an elite running QB.

In 2019, his first MVP season, Jackson became the first NFL quarterback to surpass 3,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing in a single season. The 32nd pick in 2018 out of Louisville led the NFL in his sophomore season with 36 passing TDs and 7 rushing TDs, and throwing for 3,127 yards with a passer rating of 113.3. His run yards for the season totaled 1,201 yards. Jackson was named MVP by a unanimous vote.

While both Jackson and Allen led their teams to the playoffs in their MVP seasons, neither reached (let alone won) a Super Bowl. Jackson's top-seeded Ravens were eliminated in the 2019 divisional round in an upset by the Titans. Baltimore failed again to go deep in the playoffs in Lamar's second MVP season. The Ravens beat the Titans in Round One, but lost to Kansas City in the AFC title game. 

Allen's Bills got to the AFC Championship Game last year, before falling to the Chiefs. Buffalo has a shot to go deeper in the playoffs this season, but Allen will not take the MVP trophy with him on that trip.

Lawrence, who's 26, hasn't yet reached his seventh season in the NFL, though he could lead the Jaguars to a deep playoff run -- this 13-win team is well-rounded and tough. If the Jags reach the Super Bowl, all the better for Lawrence's bona fides as an MVP hopeful next season.

If head coach Liam Coen and his offensive staff continue to help Lawrence develop, 2025 won't be Trevor's best season -- it will be merely his taking-off season. Then the sky's the limit for what he can accomplish within the next two to three years.