The perception of Trevor Lawrence around NFL circles has changed dramatically over the last year.

He used to be thought of as an underachiever who was unable to show the incredible talent that made him the top pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. Lawrence was called the best quarterback prospect to enter the league since Andrew Luck in 2012 and was drafted to become the new face of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

During his first four seasons, Lawrence teased Jacksonville with flashes of potential greatness but was never quite able to put it all together. However, he did enough to be given a massive contract extension in 2024, clearly a case of the organization believing in his future more than rewarding his play. 

That contract looked like a potential albatross for the Jaguars, possibly setting the team back years.

Then everything finally clicked for Lawrence last season, his fifth in Jacksonville. He played the best football of his career, including a remarkable stretch to end the regular season, and was named an MVP finalist for the first time, finishing fifth in the voting.

Heading into the upcoming season, Lawrence has significantly risen in QB rankings and could find himself in the running for MVP once again.

Not only is he improving his stock as a true franchise quarterback, but as a fantasy football QB as well.

That's right. PFF's senior fantasy analyst Nathan Jahnke named Lawrence one of his five fantasy football "league winners" for 2026.

One of the main reasons Jahnke believes Lawrence will excel in fantasy this season is his terrific stable of weapons. The Jags have possibly the league's most talented foursome of wide receivers in Brian Thomas Jr., Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington, and (occasionally) Travis Hunter. Add in Brenton Strange, a borderline top-10 tight end who has a strong connection with Lawrence, and it's easy to see why Jahnke is high on the QB.

"Lawrence spent four years as the Jaguars' starter to mixed results, with some stretches where he looked like a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback and others where he played like a backup. In 2022 and 2023, his fantasy production made him a high-end backup. But in 2024, his passing yards per game fell by more than 45 amid lower volume, and then an injury cut his season short.

"He became a top sleeper quarterback in 2025 after the Jaguars hired Liam Coen as head coach and drafted Travis Hunter with the second overall pick to pair with Brian Thomas Jr., who mostly excelled after Lawrence's injury. Lawrence finished fourth in fantasy points and sixth in points per game at 20.6, though that owed more to his connection with Parker Washington, Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange than to Thomas and Hunter. Lawrence also set career highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.

"Some regression in Lawrence’s nine rushing touchdowns is reasonable to expect, but his overall outlook should be similar to last season. Lawrence will have all five of his receivers available at once, allowing for a rotation and no single player for a defense to key on.

"That should make Lawrence a top-10 option again, yet he is being drafted outside the top 10 since there are several quarterbacks to feel good about this season. That makes him a strong value at his current ADP."

Admittedly, I am confused by Jahnke's point that BTJ "mostly excelled after Lawrence's injury." Nothing about Thomas' 2025 season says "excelled" at all. It was quite the opposite.

Perhaps he meant to say Lawrence excelled after Hunter's injury last year, or was likely referring to how Thomas played after Lawrence was hurt in 2024.

Otherwise, I agree with Jahnke that Lawrence is still being under-drafted for fantasy purposes. His ADP (average draft position) is currently the middle of Round 8, incredible value for a QB likely to finish in the top 10 in fantasy points.

Lawrence has never really been thought of as a top fantasy quarterback, but his play last season has certainly changed that. His ability to rack up points both as a passer and a runner makes him a smart QB to target in fantasy drafts.

Lawrence is a great bet to outperform his ADP this season, and at least one prominent fantasy analyst believes drafting him will win you your league.

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