Despite a dominant 13-4 season and division title, Jacksonville remains snubbed by analytics. Discover why simulations favor recovering rivals over the AFC South champions in these projections.
What do the Jacksonville Jaguars have to do to get some respect?
After a 2025 season in which they went 13-4 and won the AFC South, earning the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs, ESPN has the Jaguars ranked only 17th in its 2026 Football Power Index.
According to ESPN, the rankings "are primarily based on win totals from the betting market in conjunction with each team's schedule." Other factors, like backup quarterbacks and kickers, are also factored in. Using the rankings, ESPN then simulates the entire season thousands of times, making projections based on the results.
Where Do Jaguars Rank In AFC?
The Jaguars are the AFC's ninth-ranked team in the PFI (only seven earn playoff spots). Three teams ranked above the Jags, the Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, and Baltimore Ravens, failed to reach the playoffs in 2025. ESPN must consider last season a fluke for all three, especially the Ravens, who are ranked third for 2026.
In their own division, the Jaguars trail the Houston Texans, who are ranked 13th. The Indianapolis Colts, ranked 20th, are closely behind the Jaguars. The Tennessee Titans round out the division at 27th.
For what it's worth, the New England Patriots, who represented the AFC in the Super Bowl, only ranked 14th. The Denver Broncos, who earned the top seed in the playoffs a year ago, are 15th.
Jaguars Still Haven't Earned Respect
Despite their fantastic season last year, it's obvious that the Jaguars still haven't earned their fair share of respect. No 13-4 team has ever seemed to fly under the radar quite like this squad.
Understandably, the Ravens and Bengals are expected to bounce back in 2026. Both teams suffered due to their star QBs missing significant time in 2025, and both made high-profile additions this offseason, with Trey Hendrickson signing with the Ravens and the Bengals trading for Dexter Lawrence.
On the other hand, the Chiefs are hoping Patrick Mahomes will be the same player after tearing his ACL at the end of last season. Oh, and their top wide receiver is currently in jail.
The Los Angeles Chargers, like the Jaguars, are unproven and also lost their first playoff game in 2025. Yet they are ranked seventh, 10 spots ahead of the Jaguars.
Final Thoughts
It's easy to dismiss rankings like this as pointless. Every year, there are teams that fail to meet their expectations and others, like the 2025 Jaguars, who completely outperform theirs. Still, it is fair to question why there seems to be so little buzz around the Jags in 2026.
The Jaguars managed to go 13-4 in a season in which their top receiver, Brian Thomas Jr., struggled badly, and rookie phenom Travis Hunter only played seven games due to injury. It is fair to expect that both will have a much more positive impact on the team in 2026.
Trevor Lawrence, after an outstanding finish to 2025, enters the upcoming season as a legit MVP candidate.
There are plenty of reasons to be bullish on the 2026 Jaguars, even if ESPN is not.
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