Despite skepticism over Jacksonville's offseason, one analyst argues Trevor Lawrence and a potent offense should lead the Jaguars past their low win projections.
The Jacksonville Jaguars shocked the NFL by going 13-4 last season, completely flipping their 4-13 record from the year before.
Despite the team's success, many national analysts have dismissed or overlooked the Jaguars for months.
A poorly graded offseason, plus doubts about Jacksonville's running back group, has led to most people believing the Jaguars will be knocked off their AFC South throne by the Houston Texans this season.
While it was always unlikely that Jacksonville would repeat its 13-win campaign, as it would be for any team, most outlets have set the Jaguars' win projection for this season at only around 8.5-9.
ESPN's Bill Barnwell named Jacksonville as one of the five teams he thinks are most likely to decline this season. While his reasons make sense and are backed up by years of evidence and precedent, dropping from 13 wins to 8 or 9 has always seemed a bit extreme.
Jeff Howe of The Athletic agrees. In a recent article, Howe discusses why he thinks Jacksonville's win projection of nine is too low.
Year 2 Under Coen Should Lead To Improvements
Even though the Jaguars face a daunting first-place schedule this year, there are multiple reasons to believe the team will improve, even if it doesn't show up in their record.
The offense will now have a year of head coach Liam Coen's system under its belt, and that experience should lead to a jump in Year 2, as Howe points out. Howe also notes that the Jaguars won 13 games a season ago despite star wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. struggling and star rookie Travis Hunter making it through only seven games before a knee injury ended his season.
"The Jaguars have a brutal schedule and lost Devin Lloyd and Travis Etienne in free agency, so the projected regression is understandable. But the energy in Jacksonville is incredible this summer, and it’s more than reasonable to expect Trevor Lawrence and the offense to make another jump. Remember, the Jags won 13 games last season without scratching the surface with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter — their last two first-round picks — so the Jags can get a lot more explosive with that pair. — Jeff Howe"
He hits the nail on the head. Thomas and Hunter are two of Jacksonville's best players, and having them healthy and playing to their potential will do wonders for the team, both on offense and defense.
Throw in a healthy star edge rusher, Travon Walker, who played through nagging injuries all season, and a full season of Antonio Johnson, who was PFF's highest-graded safety despite only joining the starting lineup midway through the year, yet finished tied for second in the NFL with five interceptions, and there are plenty of reasons for optimism.
Final Thoughts
It is going to be nearly impossible for the Jaguars to get to 13 wins again this season, but going over their win projection of only 8.5-9 should be easily doable.
Jacksonville doesn't need to win 13 games again to have a better season than it did last year. Those 13 wins didn't matter in the playoffs, where the Jags lost at home to the Buffalo Bills in their opening postseason game.
The playoffs will be where the Jaguars are judged this season, so sacrificing 2 or 3 regular-season wins for postseason success is the more important goal. If they win 13 games again, great. But going 10-7 and then going on a playoff run will be much better.
In any case, Jacksonville over nine wins this season seems like an easy bet.
