After a dominant late-season surge and a division title, Jacksonville's star quarterback enters the elite conversation. Can continuity and statistical dominance transform this dark horse into a frontrunner?
Coming off arguably his best season as a pro, the expectations have never been higher for Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence. One of those expectations heading into this season is Lawrence will be in contention for the NFL’s MVP award.
Despite starting the season 5-4 in head coach Liam Coen’s first season as head coach, Lawrence had an MVP-caliber second half. In the final eight games he completed nearly 63 percent of his passes, threw for 2,009 yards (251.1 passing yards per game), 19 touchdowns to just five interceptions and added five rushing touchdowns, leading the Jaguars to eight consecutive wins to claim the AFC South Division title.
On the season Lawrence completed 60.9 percent of his passes, threw for 4,007 yards, 29 touchdowns to 12 interceptions and nine rushing touchdowns en route to a fifth-place finish in the MVP vote.
Currently, former MVPs Josh Allen (+650) and Lamar Jackson (+850) are the favorites followed by Joe Burrow (+900), Matthew Stafford (+900), Justin Herbert (+1000), and Drake Maye (+1000). Lawrence is considered by many to be a dark-horse MVP candidate at +2000, but his growth as a quarterback in the second half and entering his second season in Coen’s offense gives the sixth-year signal caller a solid chance at bringing home the teams’ first MVP award in history.
Range of Outcomes
Along with continuing to ascend in Coen’s offense, Lawrence’s MVP chase will depend on his ability to play an entire season—which he did last season. Assuming Lawrence remains healthy, does last year’s success point to an MVP season in 2026?
Since 2019, five quarterbacks have won the MVP. Of those five, in the season prior to winning the award, three of those quarterbacks threw for more than 4,000 yards, at least 25 touchdowns and completed at least 62 percent of their passes. Two of those quarterbacks, Allen in 2023 and Patrick Mahomes in 2021, threw more than 12 interceptions.
Two MVP seasons specifically stick out when considering the range of outcomes for Lawrence this season—Aaron Rodgers in 2019 and Allen in 2023.
In 2019 with the Green Bay Packers, Rodgers finished the season with 4,002 passing yards, 26 touchdowns to four interceptions and completed 62 percent of his passes. The following season Rodgers won the first of two consecutive MVP awards after throwing for 4,299 yards, 48 touchdowns, five interceptions and had a complete percentage of 70.7 percent.
If Lawrence doesn’t take a Roders-type jump, having a down season compared to last doesn’t end his chances.
In 2023 with the Buffalo Bills, Allen had 4,306 passing yards, 29 passing touchdowns, completed 66.5 percent of his passes, added 15 rushing touchdowns and had 18 interceptions. Allen went on to finish fifth in MVP voting that season. In 2024, Allen threw for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns, completed 63.6 percent of his passes, had 12 rushing touchdowns, and most notably, threw just six interceptions. Allen was named the league’s MVP for the first time in his career after leading the Bills to a 13-4 regular season record.
With another year under Coen and offensive coordinator Grant Udinski and building on the momentum of last season, the candidacy for Lawrence as the MVP might not be so dark.
