Sep 5, 2026 12:58 AM

Despite coming off a breakthrough season, Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars face skepticism from league execs questioning if last year’s success was a one-year fluke.

With the Jacksonville Jaguars' season opener just over a week away, how the team is viewed by experts continues to be all over the place.

Some believe the Jaguars are a middle-of-the-pack team destined to decline this season.

Others think the team will win the Super Bowl for the first time in history.

Jacksonville surprised everyone last season with a 13-4 record and winning the AFC South. Head coach Liam Coen is doing everything in his power to make sure his team builds on that success and doesn't suffer a letdown in Year 2.

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Despite all signs pointing to the Jaguars being a terrific team once again, they will need another successful season before many consider them one of the top teams in the AFC and not just a one-year wonder.

Mike Sando of The Athletic polled six executives from around the NFL and had them rank all 16 AFC teams and place each team into one of four tiers: Super Bowl contenders, division contenders, sub-.500 teams, and teams likely to pick in the top-10 of next year's draft.

One year after finishing as the AFC's third seed in the playoffs, the Jaguars were only ranked 9th in the conference. One voter had them as high as sixth. Two ranked them eighth, while the remaining three all had Jacksonville ninth.

Only one exec believes Jacksonville will be a Super Bowl contender. The remaining five all placed the team in the "division contenders" tier.

Confidence In Coaches, Concerns About Lawrence

The execs believe that Jacksonville is in good hands with Coen as HC, Grant Udinski as offensive coordinator, and Anthony Campanile as DC.

However, there are still concerns about whether Trevor Lawrence will play as well as he did last season or if his inconsistencies will return.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars

Votes: 9-8-8-6-9-9 | Avg: 8.2 | Median: 8.5 | Vegas wins: 8.5 (T-9th-AFC)

Tier votes: SB contender: 1 | Division contender: 5

"The Jaguars finished third in the AFC last season. They are only ninth here, but with considerable upward mobility.

"'There is a clear line of demarcation in the NFC,' one exec said, 'whereas in the AFC, yeah, I can make a case for Jacksonville. I can make a case for Indy.'

"What is the case for the Jaguars?

"'How good the coaching is on both sides of the ball,' this exec said. '(Anthony) Campanile, (Grant) Udinski and Liam Coen give them a really good top three from a young bright mind perspective. They are good up front defensively, and once they added (Jakobi Meyers), that offense took off. (Bhayshul) Tuten has the potential to be an explosive back. I don't see a lot of regression.'"

"The glass-half-empty view suggests the Jaguars will miss Travis Etienne and linebacker Devin Lloyd, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence has never shown consistency."

It seems like the consensus about the Jaguars is mostly positive, but they are still ranked behind several teams that they shouldn't be.

Understandably, many people are demanding the Jaguars "prove it" with another stellar season before including them among the top teams.

Why are other teams not being held to the same standard? The Bengals, Chiefs, and Ravens all failed to make the playoffs last season. Obviously, injuries to Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow played a major role in their disappointing seasons, but both had issues that went beyond QB play last year.

The Chiefs, meanwhile, were eliminated from the playoffs the day Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL, so that can't be used as an excuse for them watching the postseason from home.

Travis Kelce isn't getting any younger. Star cornerback Trent McDuffie was traded away. More evidence suggests that Kansas City will continue to decline than that the Chiefs will reclaim their spot at the top of the conference.

Final Thoughts

The Jaguars 13-win season may have been a surprise, but expecting a team with as much talent as Jacksonville to drop to a bottom-half team in the AFC is ridiculous.

The combination of the Jaguars' young, top-end talent and elite coaching staff should keep them as one of the best teams in the wide-open AFC this year.

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