What Chance to the Jaguars Have at the No. 1 Seed in the AFC?

The Jacksonville Jaguars are going to win the AFC South.

Stranger things have happened, but right now, Jacksonville coughing up a three-game lead with nine games to play feels about as likely as Mark Brunell becoming the King of England.

Last season, the Jags winning the AFC South was enough for a successful year, since they were coming off a 4-13 campaign that led to Doug Pederson going out and Liam Coen coming in as head coach.

This year, winning the South won't be good enough, and GM James Gladstone signaled that by acquiring three key defenders before the trade deadline.

Is this year "Super Bowl or bust" for the Jags? If it isn't, it's not far off.

Jacksonville's path to the Super Bowl would become much easier if the Jags can get the No. 1 seed in the AFC. So what are their chances of doing that?

ESPN's playoff picture really likes the Buffalo Bills to take that title, giving Buffalo a 47% chance to be the No. 1 seed.

The Bills are currently 7-1, a game ahead of Jacksonville, and have the 27th toughest schedule down the stretch per ESPN's Football Power Index.

Directly behind Buffalo are the Denver Broncos, who have a 13% chance to clinch the No. 1 seed.

The Broncos have the head-to-head advantage over Jacksonville, beating the Jags head-to-head in Week 2, and have the league's easiest remaining schedule per FPI. Denver hosts the Bills on Christmas Day in a matchup that could have big seeding implications.

The Cincinnati Bengals are next up with a 13% chance to be the No. 1 seed.

Cincy has the same 6-2 record as the Jags, but Jacksonville holds the tiebreaker thanks to its 22-17 win in Cincinnati in Week 4.

The Bengals have the second-easiest remaining Strength of Schedule, but one of their toughest games will be this weekend on Sunday Night Football against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Cincinnati. 

Jags fans who are in the mood for early scoreboard watching can pay attention to that one, which is expected to take place after a Jags win over the 1-7 Tennessee Titans.

Jacksonville's remaining SOS is No. 26, which is reasonable. Although the Bills are in the driver's seat for the top seed, the No. 2 seed appears to be anybody's game.

Last year, the New England Patriots had the two seed and went to the Super Bowl out of the AFC.