Plunging win totals and high-profile free agency departures haunt Jacksonville’s outlook as the Houston Texans threaten to reclaim the AFC South throne following a stagnant Jaguars offseason.
If the sharks in Vegas are accurate, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ winning 13 games last year was an anomaly.
DraftKings Sportsbook has the Jaguars’ projected win total at 8.5, with their odds of missing the playoffs at -130. Their projected win total dropped from 9.5, which DraftKings set in February.
Since then, Jacksonville has lost All-Pro LB Devin Lloyd (Carolina Panthers) and running back Travis Etienne (New Orleans Saints) to free agency and didn’t make any splash signings to replace them. Jacksonville also didn't have a first-round pick in this year's draft because of what it gave up to select Travis Hunter in 2025. When the Jags finally had a chance to draft (pick No. 56), they surprised many by taking Texas A&M tight end Nate Boericker, who the Mock Draft Database had as the No. 162-ranked player.
As of now, the Houston Texans are favored to win the AFC South, with Polymarket giving Houston a 44% chance to win the division and Jacksonville a 33% chance.
If not for Jacksonville's eight-game winning streak to end the 2025 regular season, the Texans would have won the South last season, having won their last nine regular-season games to finish 12-5.
Houston ended up with more success in the playoffs than Jacksonville, beating the Pittsburgh Steelers on the road in the wild-card round, while the Jags lost to the Buffalo Bills at home.
The Texans had arguably the league's best defense in 2025, finishing second in the league in scoring defense (three points behind the Seattle Seahawks) and first in the league in yards per game.
Historically, Jaguars fans are used to great seasons being followed by mediocre ones or worse. Jacksonville has only repeated as division champs once, with that repeat coming in 1999. If the Jags are to repeat in 2026, Trevor Lawrence on offense will need to build off what it accomplished last year, when it scored 474 points, the most in franchise history.
Jacksonville accomplished this despite its best receiver from 2024, Brian Thomas Jr., regressing in every major statistical category. Thomas has been the subject of trade rumors, which were shot down by general manager James Gladstone months ago, so it looks like he's going to be in the fold for 2026.
If Thomas can get close to where he was as a rookie (1,282 yards, 10 touchdowns on 87 receptions), it would be a big help in Jacksonville proving the oddsmakers wrong.
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