History warns of a potential collapse as Jacksonville navigates Trevor Lawrence’s consistency issues, a vacant backfield, and a crucial need for Brian Thomas Jr. to rediscover his form.
Jacksonville Jaguars fans are conditioned to believe in “one-year wonders.”
Since the turn of the Millennium, the Jags have won the AFC South three times.
The first one happened in 2017, when Jacksonville made a Cinderella run to the AFC Championship Game.
The next season, the Jags went 5-11.
Jacksonville would have to wait until 2022 for its next division championship, a season that turned into a dream.
2023 became a nightmare, with the Jags losing five of their last six to finish 9-8 and miss the playoffs.
So the Jags are 0-2 in title defenses this century, and we’ll know whether or not they’ll go 0-3 soon enough.
Jacksonville is coming off a 13-4 regular season that ended with a division title and plans to build on that in 2026.
CBSSports’ Tyler Sullivan laid out what it would take for the Jags to repeat and also laid out the worst-case scenario.
The bad scenario involves Trevor Lawrence looking more like the quarterback he was in the first 11 games of the season (14 TD, 11 INT) than the last six (15 TD, 1 INT).
It also involves the Jags not being able to replace their top running back from last year, Travis Etienne.
Etienne did it all for Jacksonville in 2025, ending the year with 1,107 yards and seven touchdowns rushing and 292 yards and six touchdowns receiving.
This led to him getting a four-year, $47.4 million deal with the New Orleans Saints, and the Jags needing a new top runner.
Although GM James Gladstone says this will be by committee, the common thought is that Bhayshul Tuten will get the lion’s share of carries.
The Jags liked Tuten enough to draft him in the fourth round in 2025, and he showed flashes as a rookie (307 yards, five touchdowns, and a 3.7 yards per carry average).
But nobody knows what Tuten can do in a significant role, and if he isn’t up to the task, the Jags offense could suffer.
It could also suffer if receiver Brian Thomas Jr. can’t bounce back.
BTJ had a great rookie season, finishing with 1,282 yards and 10 touchdowns on 87 receptions. Last year, a combination of injuries (Thomas missed three games), regression, and other targets emerging led to Thomas ending the year with 707 yards and two touchdowns.
If all of those go wrong, the Jags might not be anywhere in the postseason.
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