The Lions didn’t just lose to the Packers on Thanksgiving — they lost momentum, clarity and confidence. Now, with the Cowboys looming in prime time, Detroit and its bettors stare at a slate full of opportunities.
After a rough Thanksgiving loss to the Green Bay Packers, the Detroit Lions will look to steady themselves Thursday night when they face the Dallas Cowboys, and bettors will be looking to rebound right alongside them.
Detroit’s 31-24 defeat at Ford Field exposed familiar issues: defensive breakdowns, missed red-zone opportunities and an offense that stalled in key situations. For those tracking my weekly picks, it was another mixed outing. I went 1-for-2, with Jahmyr Gibbs falling just two yards short of hitting his over. My season record now sits at 12-9 — still safely above water, but not the heater I’m aiming for.
This week’s matchup offers plenty of opportunity, and I feel confident in delivering three plays with real value as Detroit prepares for a must-win showdown in prime time.
Bet 1: Jameson Williams Over 83.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Jameson Williams cashed for us last week, so we’re heading right back. Coming off a career-high 144 receiving yards, the former first-round pick now has three 100-yard games this season, matching his total from all of last year. Williams has hit this yardage mark in three of his last four outings, and the one miss came in a game where he didn’t record a single reception.
There are plenty of reasons to believe he can clear 83.5 again. Dallas is surrendering 251.5 passing yards per game, the second-worst mark in the NFL, and Detroit’s passing attack should be heavily emphasized. Amon-Ra St. Brown has missed two straight practices, casting doubt on his availability Thursday. Sam LaPorta remains sidelined. All signs point to Williams being Jared Goff’s most dynamic option.
Last week, Williams saw 10 targets — the second-most of his career — and he cleared this yardage prop before halftime, finishing the first two quarters with 86 yards. His chemistry with Goff feels fully reestablished, and with Detroit likely needing to push the ball vertically, Williams is positioned for another explosive outing.
Bet 2: Isaac Teslaa Anytime Touchdown (+160)
At +160, Isaac Teslaa to score is one of the juicier value plays on the board. The rookie has only six receptions this year, but half of them have gone for touchdowns. That includes last week’s grab against Green Bay. At 6-foot-4, Teslaa is exactly the kind of red-zone mismatch Goff has leaned on in short-yardage scoring situations.
He proved in Week 1, with his viral one-handed touchdown that earned “best first NFL catch” recognition, that he can win contested balls. With a projected total of 54.5 points, both offenses should have multiple red-zone opportunities. One target in tight coverage may be all Teslaa needs.
Bet 3: Over 54.5 Points (-110)
Detroit’s defense has struggled over the last two weeks, giving up 58 combined points. The news of Terrion Arnold undergoing season-ending shoulder surgery only weakens an already-thin secondary. Facing elite receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, the Lions could quickly find themselves in a track meet.
Offensively, Detroit continues to be reliable. The Lions are averaging 29.2 points per game, third in the league. Dallas allows 28.5 per game — 31st in the NFL. Detroit converts 65.2% of red-zone trips into points, the seventh-best mark in the league, while Dallas ranks 31st in red-zone defense at 71.1%.
Add in the Cowboys’ lack of takeaways, only 10 all season, 26th in the NFL, and Detroit should be able to extend drives. And perhaps the biggest factor: the Lions’ fourth-down aggression. When Dan Campbell’s gambles hit, games often fly over the total.
Given the 55 points scored last week against the Packers, and considering Dallas has a stronger offense and weaker defense than Green Bay, the over remains the logical play. Detroit is 7-5 on point totals this season, with the over hitting in back-to-back weeks.
Detroit desperately needs a win to keep its season alive. And truthfully, I’d take an 0-3 betting card if it meant a Lions victory. The good news? I think Detroit can secure both — a win and a high-scoring performance — with all three bets in play.
A parlay of all three wagers pays out at +534, meaning a $10 bet nets roughly $53. Let’s see if Thursday night brings the bounce-back Detroit, and our bankroll needs.