The Lions and Bills could be in for a shootout on Thursday night. After a rough 1-2 start last week, I’m looking to bounce back with three bets I’m targeting in Week 2.
Last week wasn’t my best outing, as I went 1-2, hitting on just the Tyler Shough passing-yards over. I’m ready to bounce back in what I believe is shaping up to be a high-scoring matchup.
Before we dive into the bets, there was some significant Lions news that broke earlier today. Both Blake Miller and Christian Mahogany have been ruled out. Luckily, Detroit has two solid backups in Larry Borom and Ben Bartch. This news could have a slight impact on the run game and pass protection. Bartch did start all but 11 snaps against the Saints last week, while Borom is expected to fill in for Miller at right tackle.
Jahmyr Gibbs 123.5 Rush + Receiving Yards — Over (-114)
Last week, Jahmyr Gibbs hit this number with his rushing yards alone. Although David Montgomery was slowed down by the Bills last week, he did have a long rush of 18 yards but averaged just 3.0 yards per carry on 20 attempts. Woody Marks did a little better, rushing nine times for 42 yards and averaging 4.7 yards per carry.
Gibbs is the type of player who can get a large portion of this number on one play alone. Last week against the Saints, Gibbs recorded seven carries of 10 or more yards while finishing with 156 rushing yards.
With two starting offensive linemen out, I believe Jared Goff could be forced to throw more checkdown passes, which could give Gibbs additional opportunities in the passing game. Gibbs is also coming off a game where he received 34 total touches, so the volume is clearly there.
Dalton Kincaid 51.5 Receiving Yards — Over (-114)
Last week, we had good luck betting on an opposing team’s players, and this week I believe Dalton Kincaid might be my favorite bet.
Last week, Saints tight ends combined for 15 targets, seven receptions and 87 yards, along with two touchdowns. Buffalo does have another solid tight end in Dawson Knox, but Kincaid is the primary receiving threat at the position.
Kincaid is coming off a career-high 130 receiving yards, recording five receptions on six targets against Houston. He also recorded 42 yards after the catch, which was among the highest totals at the position in Week 1. PFF gave him a 91.6 receiving grade, the highest among qualified tight ends after Week 1.
Kincaid also played 76.9% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps, a significant increase from his 55% average last season. His six targets, were tied for the second-most among Buffalo pass catchers.
The matchup against Detroit is one I’ll be watching closely, especially after Kincaid’s explosive Week 1 performance.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD (+105)
Last week, Amon-Ra St. Brown got into the end zone twice and led the Lions in targets with 14, while recording 10 receptions for 67 yards.
The last time St. Brown faced the Bills, he absolutely exploded, catching 14 passes for 193 yards and a touchdown on 18 targets. Those 193 yards remain the most he has recorded in a single game.
Another reason I like this matchup is the way Buffalo’s secondary performed in Week 1. The Bills allowed 274 passing yards and two receiving touchdowns against Houston.
According to PFF, Buffalo’s secondary had several players struggle in coverage during Week 1. Christian Benford, one of Buffalo’s starting outside cornerbacks, received a 33.1 PFF grade in the game, and allowed If Buffalo struggles to contain St. Brown, he could have another monster performance.
The Parlay
A parlay of these three bets would give you +543 odds, meaning a $10 bet would return $64.30 total, including $54.30 in profit.
If I could only bet one of these, the Dalton Kincaid over 51.5 receiving yards would be my favorite.
As always, bet responsibly, and good luck!
