Before you loosen your belt for dessert, there’s money to be made. Lions–Packers on Thanksgiving is back, and this year’s matchup comes seasoned with betting lines too tasty to ignore.
The Green Bay Packers travel to Detroit this week for their 20th Thanksgiving Day matchup against the Lions, a tradition that stretches back decades and routinely delivers one of the holiday’s most anticipated games. Detroit enters the meeting holding a 12-8-1 record over Green Bay in Thanksgiving contests.
Both teams arrive at Ford Field in need of a statement win. With Thursday marking their second meeting of the season, this matchup feels like a test of urgency as much as talent: which team wants it more, and which can seize momentum as the playoff picture sharpens?
Before fans settle in for turkey, stuffing and rivalry football, here are three of the strongest betting plays for the Lions–Packers game.
Jahmyr Gibbs Over 69.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
It may be surprising to see Jahmyr Gibbs’ rushing line set at 69.5 yards, given what he did last week, but you have to consider how poorly he performed against Green Bay in Week 1. In that game, Gibbs finished with just 19 rushing yards on nine carries, one of his least productive outings as a Lion.
But Thursday offers a chance for a dramatically different result. Gibbs is coming off a career-high 219 rushing yards and enters the holiday matchup with clear momentum. On the season, he is averaging 6.1 yards per carry, while the Packers’ defense is allowing 116.5 rushing yards per game and 3.9 yards per carry. If you blend those averages, Gibbs projects to land somewhere around 5 yards per attempt, meaning approximately 14 carries should put him within striking distance of the over.
His big-play potential also can’t be overstated. Gibbs is capable of ripping off a 30- or 40-yard run at any point, the type of burst that can flip this prop quickly. In Detroit’s four home wins at Ford Field, Gibbs is averaging 135 rushing yards per game. Even when factoring in the home loss to Minnesota, he is still averaging 113 rushing yards in the building. Detroit is expected to lean on its explosive back early, making this my favorite bet of the week.
Jameson Williams Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Despite a quiet performance last week, Jameson Williams remains a candidate for a bounce-back game. This is a volatile bet — Williams has been feast-or-famine all season but the upside is undeniable. He is averaging 51 receiving yards per game and has eclipsed the 53.5-yard mark in four of his last six contests. In the other two games, he failed to record a single yard, underscoring the boom-or-bust nature of this play.
With tight end Sam LaPorta still sidelined and Amon-Ra St. Brown coming off a heavy-volume performance, Williams should be positioned for increased usage. His ability to turn any reception into a touchdown is exactly why Detroit drafted him.
The Lions rank last in the NFL in passes of 20-plus yards, a statistic that has been widely discussed in recent weeks. Don’t be surprised if head coach Dan Campbell schemes more deep shots for Williams. Look for Williams to hit the over and add a little extra flavor to your Thanksgiving slate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime Touchdown (+100)
This is a slightly juicier bet, but it may be the most reliable. The chemistry between Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown looked rejuvenated last week, as St. Brown found the end zone once again. He has scored in two of his last three games and three of his last five.
At Ford Field, St. Brown has been nearly automatic. He has scored seven touchdowns across his last five home games, failing to score only once. Averaging 10.8 targets per game, he consistently receives a high volume of red-zone looks. He also ranks second in the NFL in both total red-zone targets and targets inside the 10-yard line.
With LaPorta absent — and defenses likely adjusting after Gibbs’ breakout performance — St. Brown should see additional opportunities near the goal line. Expect him to be heavily featured and well-positioned to score.
One of the most beloved sporting events of the year can become even more exciting with these three wagers. A parlay of the three plays comes out to roughly +600, meaning a $10 bet would return about $60. For fans settling in with turkey, ham and stuffing, this could make Thanksgiving even more satisfying.