The New England Patriots opened with an over/under of 9.5 wins for the 2026 season after the NFL’s schedule release. How has that total shifted since the team traded for A.J. Brown? We examine.
New England Patriots’ wide receiver A.J. Brown’s arrival in Foxboro has the NFL world buzzing — but is the betting market surrounding the team?
Prior to New England’s trade for the former Philadelphia Eagles’ and Tennessee Titans’ wideout earlier this week, the consensus win total for the Patriots during the 2026 regular season was set at 9.5.
Since Brown joined the team, that’s now shifted to 10.5 wins. In essence, Las Vegas is projecting that Brown himself adds one win to a New England team pushing to make another deep playoff run in 2026. Not a huge bump to a relatively low win total for the defending AFC Champions.
After the schedule release, the Patriots’ odds to win the Super Bowl were set at +1700. To win the conference, they sat at +800 and to win the AFC East, their odds were +130. Following the acquisition of Brown, New England now sits at +1600 to win Super Bowl LXI, +770 to win the AFC, and +125 to win the division.
The Patriots’ slate of upcoming opponents looks to present a much greater challenge than 2025, but the brass in Foxboro have spent the past three months reinforcing a young roster primed with Super Bowl experience.
The addition of Brown as a top-end WR1 is the icing on the cake after the team spent March and April overhauling key positions of need. With new blood that fits the identity built during the first year of the Mike Vrabel era, New England caps off an active spring with a swing for the fences on an elite “X” to pair with Drake Maye.
In the betting market, the Patriots’ 2026 gauntlet initially profiled to be one filled with turbulence — especially early in the season, when the team is on the road for three of the first four games and plays playoff-caliber opponents in each match-up (Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Buffalo Bills). New England’s first four opponents combined for a winning percentage of .721 in 2025, and ranks as the most difficult start to a season since the 1986 Eagles based on that metric.
The Patriots initially opened as an underdog in seven games: at Seattle (-3.5), at Jacksonville (-1.5), at Buffalo (-3), at the Chicago Bears (-1.5), at the Detroit Lions (in Munich, Germany, -1.5), at the Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5), and at the Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5). While the market has yet to flip on individual games, their rising win total is likely to result in more contests as betting favorites.
The real impact Brown has for New England in the betting market is found in the postseason: only the Los Angeles Rams (+550), Baltimore Ravens (+1000), Buffalo Bills (+1000), and Seattle Seahawks (+1100) have better odds to win the Super Bowl than the Patriots.
Brown’s unique combination of talent, fit, and league-wide status alter the projection for the Patriots heading into 2026 — both on the field and in the betting market — but expectations seem to be tempered before we see him take the field in live action for the team.
If it hadn’t already shifted following a trip to Super Bowl LX, the league’s perception of New England is clear as a legitimate postseason contender, even if their regular season win total isn't an attention grabber. Now, the Patriots will have to prove that on the field — where expectations will be high for the new duo of Maye and Brown.
Will New England live up to their newfound expectations? Does the acquisition of A.J. Brown open the team’s championship window a little bit wider, or will the Patriots regress back to the mean with a more difficult journey through 2026? Let us know what you think in the comments section below.
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