Jaguars’ Defense Could Spell Trouble for Drake Maye and Patriots’ Offense

Forget the Jacksonville Jaguars’ high-powered offense… the Jacksonville defense may be primed to generate another headache-filled performance from Drake Maye and the New England Patriots this Sunday.

The confident, decisive version of Maye that was prevalent throughout the 2025 season has been absent through the first two weeks of 2026, and New England fans hopeful that this week will bring about change may have to continue waiting for his breakout performance. The Jaguars specialize in coverages that have made Maye timid through the 2025 playoffs and into the regular season this fall, and could spell trouble for the third-year signal-caller yet again.

Here’s a closer look at how Jacksonville’s defense may be able to disrupt Maye and the Patriots’ passing attack:

While incredibly efficient against most defensive looks, Maye’s one constant flaw has been his inability to solve Cover 6. 

In the 2025 regular season, Maye ranked 30th in the NFL in EPA/dropback against Cover 6 at +0.029 — a stark contrast from his league-leading EPA/dropback of +0.313 against all other defensive coverage shells (per SūmerSports). 

The postseason run and matchups against the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl LX and the 2026 regular season-opener put those deficiencies on display for the rest of the league. We’ve previously broken down Seattle’s called coverages against Maye as a potential blueprint for the rest of the league, and that appears to be holding true.

Now two games into the 2026 regular season, and those same issues are rearing their ugly heads once again. Here’s how Maye has performed vs. coverage-type through the early portion of the fall:

Last year, Cover 3 was the most commonly called coverage against Maye and the New England offense. Maye performed extraordinarily well against Cover 3 in 2025, completing 125-of-166 passes (75.3% completion percentage) with 1,637 yards, seven touchdowns, two interceptions, and an EPA/dropback of +0.454, which topped the NFL.

Since then, that’s been replaced by a —typically — much-less frequently called shell in Cover 6 this fall. The change-up between the two coverages has seemed to confuse Maye, and forced him to play at a significantly slower pace. 

He’s looked less confident in his reads, and has held onto the ball in situations where he would have previously trusted in his arm talent to make throws on-time and on target. That’s led to sacks, a league-leading four interceptions in two games, and a timid-looking quarterback in the pocket — one year removed from an MVP-caliber showing in the 2025 regular season. 

Maye’s still been efficient on the rare occasions when he sees Cover 2 and Cover 4, but the similar presentation of Cover 1 and Cover 3 (single-high safety, middle-field closed) has led to more inconsistencies against man-to-man coverage than were present last fall. With a much lower completion percentage against those coverages and a high turnover rate against Cover 6, teams have limited their usage of those shells he’s demonstrated an ability to dissect.

The bait-and-switch of Cover 3 and Cover 6 has been an enigma that Maye’s yet to solve, and that plays right into the Jaguars strengths on the back-end.

Since the start of the 2025 regular season, Jacksonville has established a clear preference in their defensive coverage shells under defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile — and it mirrors many of the difficulties Maye has endured as of late. 

Here’s a full breakdown of the Jaguars’ coverage scheme over the last two seasons (per SūmerSports):

Much like the Seahawks, Jacksonville has used Cover 3 (314 snaps) as a base coverage, with Cover 6 (173 snaps) most frequently used as a change-up. In the same time frame, only Seattle (209 snaps) has run Cover 6 at a higher frequency around the NFL. 

In a more direct comparison with the Seahawks, it’s notable that Seattle’s -0.182 EPA/dropback in Cover 3 is far more detrimental to offensive success than Jacksonville’s (-0.079), but the Jaguars (-0.086) boast a more favorable defensive EPA/dropback than the Seahawks’ -0.026. 

Both teams have allowed a 70-plus percent completion percentage when running Cover 6, but the deep split-field shell is designed to force underneath throws while taking away deep shots to boundary receivers — oftentimes leading to checkdowns and short completions, but eliminating explosive plays. As a result, each defense has created more takeaways than allowed touchdowns — Seattle allowed two touchdowns to six interceptions, while Jacksonville has not allowed a touchdown and recorded three interceptions — when running Cover 6.

If the Jaguars are looking to produce similar results against Maye, they won’t have to change what’s already been working for them over the past two seasons. 

The Jaguars’ secondary can become leaky when in man-coverage, but that will require a much better showing from Maye than he’s put on tape against those shells in 2026. When running Cover 1 and Cover 0, Jacksonville has allowed 19 touchdowns to just six interceptions, and allowed 12 touchdowns on just 32 snaps of Cover 0 during the 2025 regular season.

In the 2025 regular season, Maye was excellent against Cover 1 — he completed 72 of 101 passing attempts (71.3% completion percentage), passed for 1,072 yards, tossed 11 touchdowns to just three interceptions, and registered an EPA/dropback of +0.377. This fall, that’s dropped to just four completions on nine attempts, 78 yards, and an EPA/dropback of -0.035. 

Maye’s newfound struggles against man-coverage may be attributed to the absence of A.J. Brown and underdeveloped chemistry with this other top options on the outside. Last year, it was Stefon Diggs in the slot and Kayshon Boutte on the outside. Now, those pieces have been replaced by DeMario Douglas and Romeo Doubs, with Mack Hollins and Kyle Williams ascending into more significant roles in Brown’s stead.

With more time on task together, those new connections will begin to yield greater results — but the timeline on that may need to accelerate if New England is to take advantage of the few opportunities that will be available against Jacksonville. Otherwise, the Jaguars will be incentivized to stay in a zone-heavy scheme that has proved to be problematic for the Patriots’ young superstar under center.

Maye’s excellence in the 2025 regular season feels like a distant past with six consecutive underwhelming performances through the postseason and to start 2026. Those teams that have neutralized his aggressiveness downfield have done so with a similar schematic approach to Jacksonville’s — allowing the home team to play to their strengths this weekend, and forcing New England’s quarterback to go head-to-head against those tactics once more. Sunday will be another opportunity for Maye to put those concerns to bed with a much stronger showing that could deter future opponents from returning to those coverages at as high a rate.

How do you think Maye and the Patriots’ offense will perform against the Jaguars’ defense? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and join the conversation on Patriots Roundtable.

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