Overlooked Patriots Playmaker Poised for a Breakout Against the Detroit Lions

There hasn’t been much reason for optimism in the New England Patriots’ backfield of late, but a Week 10 showdown against the Detroit Lions in Munich, Germany, presents a surprising opportunity for a breakout performance from one of the unlikeliest of sources: Corey Kiner.

On the surface, it may appear that New England’s rushing attack is set to face even more challenges after a potential massive shake-up in the rotation this week. Now staring down the barrel of a Detroit defense that’s allowing the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game across the NFL (94.1), the projection for future success may look grim.

And yet, peeling back the layers of this matchup begins to skew heavily in the Patriots’ favor — especially with Kiner leading the way.

Through nine games, New England has struggled to establish a consistent presence on the ground, relying on Drake Maye to account for 73% of the team’s total offensive yards. But the Patriots’ lack of success running hasn’t been due to an abandonment of the ground game as a whole. New England is only passing the ball on 59.1% of their total offensive plays — the 18th-highest rate in the league — but their lack of effectiveness in running the ball has been what’s hampered their production in that area.

The Patriots’ team totals don’t represent their inefficiencies, due in large part to Maye’s individual rushing totals (47 carries, 244 yards, three touchdowns). As a result, New England ranks 10th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (119.9) on the 11th-most carries per game (28.4), and their 4.2 yards per carry ranks 14th. Analytically, their -0.05 EPA/rush ranks 12th, but their 41.8% success rate is 17th, and they’ve been stuffed on 20.7% of their rushing attempts (16th).

Now facing the potential of an absence for their leading rusher, Rhamondre Stevenson (102 carries, 399 yards, two touchdowns) — who has been diagnosed with a plantaris tendon injury in the back of his right knee, but practiced in a limited capacity on Thursday — and the continued unavailable status of TreVeyon Henderson (illness), the Patriots will likely lean on Kiner to lead their backfield efforts.

And while that may initially seem like a shot in the dark, it could be just what New England needs to yield more consistent results.

Kiner has been one of the Patriots’ more undervalued offensive contributors this season after being acquired from the Arizona Cardinals in exchange for a 2028 seventh-round pick on August 29. The former 2025 undrafted free agent has already led the team in rushing yards in three separate games, and scored his first-career rushing touchdown last Sunday. In nine games, he’s totaled 50 carries, ranks second on the team with 244 rushing yards, leads the team with 4.9 yards per carry, and has found the end zone once. 

Analytically, Kiner ranks favorably in comparison to the rest of New England’s backfield — even with a smaller sample size. His -0.11 EPA/rush is 32nd in the NFL among running backs with at least 50 touches, and second on the team behind Stevenson’s -0.07 (21st in the league). Kiner leads all Patriots’ rushers and ranks 13th in the NFL with a 44.0% rushing success rate, and his stellar yards-per-carry average (4.9) is good for ninth in the league using the same parameters. His 2.98 yards after contact per-rush also tops New England’s running back rotation, and is good for 23rd in the league.

Those numbers show potential for even greater results with a larger workload, and that’s exactly what Kiner is going to get against a Detroit defense that’s not nearly as stout against the run as their average rushing yards per game against would suggest. 

The Lions’ have built a top-10 rushing defense while facing the third-fewest carries per game (23.0), but their 4.1 yards per rush allowed is the 15th-highest in the NFL — and analytically, they rank 19th in the league in defensive EPA/rush (-0.08, per SūmerSports). 

Detroit has also allowed explosive runs on 12.5% of opposing rushing attempts — the sixth-highest mark in the NFL (per PFF) — and rank second-to-last in yards allowed before contact per carry (1.98). 

The Lions’ low-total rushing yards allowed per game has been driven by their inability to reliably defend against the pass, and their opponents’ eagerness to exploit that defensive weakness. Rather than rushing at a high-rate against them, opponents pass the ball more often when facing Detroit than any other team (39.0 passing attempts per game). 

The Patriots will likely look to press their advantage downfield with Maye, but have also clearly been working towards establishing more balance to reduce their quarterback’s hefty weekly burden in carrying the offense. 

With Kiner presumably their top option in the running back room, New England may still be able to do that. His promising production on limited reps is set to take a leap this weekend, and the Lions present a much better matchup for the Patriots’ ground game than baseline statistics would suggest. 

We’ll see if Kiner is able to reinvent New England’s rushing attack with a more expanded role against Detroit on Sunday, but the opportunity is certainly there for the taking. 

How do you think Kiner will perform with an increased workload against the Lions this weekend? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and join the conversation on Patriots Roundtable.

–

Follow Eddie on Patriots Roundtable

Recent Articles:

- Drake Maye, Patriots’ Offense Could Exploit the Lions’ Biggest Defensive Weaknesses

- Unheralded Prospect Is Becoming Patriots’ Most Versatile Offensive Weapon

- Has Christian Gonzalez Become a Liability for the New England Patriots in Coverage? 

- What Went Wrong for Drake Maye in Patriots' Loss to Packers?

Check out the Patriots Roundtable Podcast!

YouTube

Spotify

Apple Podcasts