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Tyler Geis
Jan 2, 2026
Updated at Jan 2, 2026, 00:59
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Despite clinching the AFC East last week, there are a lot of scenarios to further the Patriots' luck in the playoffs during their Week 18 matchup.

The New England Patriots are the AFC East champs for the first time since 2019, but don't get it twisted; Week 18's matchup with the 7-9 Miami Dolphins still holds some stakes.

The Patriots have the AFC's number one seed in their eyeline, but getting there would mean the Los Angeles Chargers would have to beat the current number one-seeded Denver Broncos.  In another scenario, that would pique many's interest and seem like an obtainable goal for a fairly decent number-two team in the West. However, it seems the Chargers will take a back seat in Week 18's showdown with their AFC West rival.

The Chargers Are Resting Justin Herbert Against the Broncos

The Chargers will start Trey Lance on Sunday to let Herbert rest and heal ahead of their Wild Card game the following week.  This almost certainly guarantees a Chargers loss, and the Broncos clinch the number one seed.

This is not to say it's a guarantee the Chargers won't make much of an effort come Sunday, but the announcement that Herbert will get the rest he needs prior to the playoffs does hint at where head coach Jim Harbaugh's priorities lie.

A Broncos win locks them in with a first-round bye in the postseason and makes the road to the Super Bowl go through Empower Field at Mile High.

The Bills will be the Sixth Seed With a Win and a Chargers loss.

Currently, the Buffalo Bills have the seventh seed in the AFC playoff picture, but many feel that will change by the end of Week 18.

There will be no AFC East title for the Buffalo Bills in 2025. But a win over the 3-13 New York Jets on Sunday and a Chargers loss to the Broncos would lock them into the sixth seed and send the Chargers to the seventh.

Patriots Avoid Buffalo on Wild Card Weekend

It's been proven, this year especially, that even though Josh Allen is under center in Buffalo, the Patriots can compete and beat the Bills. However, they'd much rather avoid them in the postseason as much as possible.

Many see this as Allen's year to get it done and hoist the Lombardi Trophy. No Mahomes, Jackson, or even Burrow. Only Drake Maye seems like the only real threat to that narrative. It's situations like that where Allen is perfectly capable of rising to the occasion.

Mike Vrabel and company are heavily favored over the Dolphins in Week 18, and it would be in their best interest to catch a lead early and go for the win at home.

Not just for the chance that the Chargers, even with Trey Lance's signal-calling, could maybe upset the top-ranked Broncos, but because a loss to Miami would bump them into the third seed and have the Jacksonville Jaguars take the two seed.

A lot of scenarios are at play for Wild Card Weekend, but one thing is for certain: wherever the Patriots land, the competition will be stiff.