What to Watch For: New England Patriots Defense vs. Chicago Bears Offense | Week 7 2026

Bring on the Bears.

Just four days after a hard-fought divisional win, the New England Patriots (4-2) take to the road for a Thursday Night Football showdown against the Chicago Bears (4-2). Pitting two dichotomous coaching staffs and closely linked quarterbacks against each other on a short week, this matchup is ripe with intrigue — and will serve as a measuring stick for both clubs as they learn more about their teams’ 2026 identities.

When New England arrives in the windy city, they’ll be greeted by one of the NFL’s most potent and creative offensive attacks — led by head coach Ben Johnson and engineered by a now-healthy former No. 1 overall pick under center. The duo is sure to present Mike Vrabel and Zak Kuhr with a litany of evolving tactics for a full 60 minutes, challenging the visitors’ attacking defensive mentality in ways they’ve yet to be tested this fall.

Here’s what we’ll be watching for when the Patriots’ defense lines up across from the Bears’ offense:

All eyes will be on the duel between 2024 top-three picks Caleb Williams (No. 1 overall) and Drake Maye (No. 3 overall) when the action begins on Thursday night.

For Chicago, Williams has been every bit the uber-talented, high-ceiling quarterback prospect that they were yearning for when making the selection. In his first 37 career starts, Williams has compiled a 62.1% completion percentage, 8,195 passing yards (221.5 yards per game), 50 touchdown passes, 14 interceptions, and a passer rating of 89.9. His dual-threat capabilities have also been on display, adding 987 rushing yards and five touchdowns to his totals.

Last season under Johnson was one of remarkable success for Williams and the Bears. After a 5-12 rookie season, Williams commanded Chicago to an 11-5 record and threw for 3,942 yards with 27 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and set a franchise record with six fourth quarter comeback victories.

They picked up right where they left off to begin 2026.

The Bears erupted for 59 points in their season-opening win over the Carolina Panthers. Williams starred alongside a dominant rushing attack, completing 21-of-29 passing attempts with 269 yards, two touchdowns, and a passer rating of 124.1, and added 10 rushes, 65 yards, and two more touchdowns on the ground. 

Williams exited Chicago’s Week 2 contest with a hamstring injury and was absent for Weeks 3-5, but the Bears’ offense barely slowed down. When Williams returned last week, they topped 30 points in another victory. He completed 30-of-36 passing attempts with 305 yards, one touchdown, and a passer rating of 111.2 in a 31-23 victory over the Atlanta Falcons.

On the season, Chicago ranks fifth in the NFL in yards per game (388.3), 12th in points per game (25.0), sixth in third-down conversion rate (45.5%), and have run a league-best 73.2 plays per game, while their defense has been on the field for a league-low 50.2. With Williams on the field, their offense ranks eighth in EPA/play (+0.05) and EPA/pass (+0.14), 10th in passing success rate (47.3%) and EPA/rush (-0.05), and 11th in offensive success rate (44.6%, per SūmerSports). 

Through three starts, Williams leads the NFL in completion percentage (72.5%) and ranks fourth in EPA/play (+0.30, per PFF) — a stark contrast from his 58.1% completion percentage and +0.12 EPA/play in year one with Johnson at the helm.

Williams and the Bears' offense are beginning to find their groove, but they’ve done so in spite of some weaknesses that New England may be able to exploit — especially up-front.

While Chicago has efficiently worked their way into the top-10 for virtually every statistical and analytical measure of offensive performance, they have had one glaring weakness: protection.

Aside from the consistent production of the ageless perennial All-Pro Joe Thuney, the Bears have struggled to keep opposing defenses from affecting the pocket and sacking the quarterback, no matter who’s been under center.

On the season, Chicago ranks 21st in the NFL in sacks allowed (15) and 20th in sack rate (6.3%). With Williams at the helm, those numbers have been even higher. In three games, Williams has taken nine sacks at an 8.1% sack rate (eighth-highest in the NFL), and holds a pressure-to-sack percentage of 18.0%.

Facing pressure on 45.0% of his total dropbacks (per PFF), Williams has completed 16-of-32 passing attempts (50.0%) with 203 yards (6.3 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 78.0. When kept clean, he’s completed 50-of-59 attempts (84.7%) with 509 yards (8.6 yards per attempt), one touchdown, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 108.3.

Many of those pressures have been brought about by Williams himself. In an attempt to extend plays, he’s held the ball for a league leading 3.50 seconds per dropback — but the deep shots haven’t necessarily followed. 

Williams’ Average Depth of Target (ADoT) is just 5.9 yards (37th) and his yards per attempt sits at 7.8 yards (eighth), while only attempting three big-time throws all season (3.0%, 27th). He’s completed each of those attempts, but has rarely taken them in an offense that stresses the defense horizontally more often than vertically.

Blitzing has been an effective method of slowing Williams’ processing and forcing him into mistakes — which plays right into the Patriots’ attacking defensive mentality. Williams has been blitzed on 56.8% of his total dropbacks this season, and has completed 31-of-51 passes (60.8%) with 353 yards passing (6.9 yards per attempt), one touchdown, one interception, and a passer rating of 79.9. When he’s faced three or four-man rushes, he’s completed 35-of-40 passes (87.5%) with 359 yards (9.0 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 120.7.

Through six games, New England has blitzed at the eighth-highest rate of any team in the NFL (36.7%) and generated pressure at the eighth-highest rate (42.3%, per SūmerSports). Given Williams’ splits when under pressure and facing the blitz, that number will in all likelihood continue to rise through Week 7. 

The Patriots will be bringing the heat, but they’ll need to stay disciplined on the back-end to avoid the run-after-catch opportunities that the Bears’ offense has thrived on under Johnson.

Chicago has a new top-option in the passing game in 2026 that’s sure to create mismatches with the New England secondary all night: Luther Burden III. 

The former 2025 second-round pick (No. 39 overall) has seen a major jump in his snap share, usage rate, and production in his sophomore season. Last year, Burden started five of 15 games played and registered 47 receptions on 60 targets, 652 receiving yards, and scored two touchdowns. In the first six games of 2026, he’s already accumulated 31 catches on 43 targets, 361 yards, and one touchdown, and added seven carries for 22 yards rushing.

A constant threat to break plays into explosive gains with the ball in his hands, Burden’s 11.6 yards per catch have included 5.2 yards after the catch per reception — and he’s done so from a variety of alignments. Unlike Garrett Wilson one week ago, Burden has a near-even split of reps out wide (140) and in the slot (135), making him a less likely candidate for Christian Gonzalez to shadow.

Burden may command priority attention from the Patriots’ defensive backs, but 2024 No. 9 overall pick Rome Odunze cannot go unnoticed. The 6’3”, 214-pound boundary receiver will present matchup difficulties with his size and wide catch radius if not defended by Gonzalez (or Carlton Davis III, if active), and his big-play ability has been evident once again this season. Odunze trails just behind Burden in receiving yards (312) and targets (33), and ranks third on the team in catches (20).

On an offense that works the middle of the field frequently, Odunze has been the target when Williams stretches the field deep. His ADoT sits at 14.1 yards, and his average yards per catch at 15.6 — both team-high marks. A receiver who previously struggled with drops (five in each of his first two seasons), Odunze has yet to register a drop this fall (per PFF).

The Bears also run heavy personnel packages more than any team in the NFL, featuring multiple tight ends on 52.6% of their offensive plays. They’ve run 33.7% of their snaps out of 12 personnel (fifth) and 18.9% of their plays out of 13 personnel (fourth), challenging opposing defenses to match those sets against the run and pass. 

When throwing to the tight ends, 2025 No. 10 overall pick Colston Loveland has been Chicago’s clear leader. He ranks third on the team in targets (30) and fourth in receptions (19) and yards (175), and has added one touchdown. As a rookie, he registered 58 receptions on 82 targets with 713 yards and six touchdowns, and has been a featured part of the Bears’ passing attack since he stepped foot in the building.

While Chicago doesn’t specialize in 11 personnel (46.0% of offensive snaps), they do have a reliable third receiver to rotate into the game in Kalif Raymond. The 5’9”, 160-pound speedster is a change-of-pace player in the Bears’ offense and ranks fourth on the team in targets (29), second in catches (26), and third in yards (244) with one touchdown. Like Burden, he’s split his reps as a slot receiver and averages 4.9 yards after the catch per reception.

Chicago’s well of skill position players runs deep, and their varied use creates complications in gameplanning for them on a weekly basis — but their greatest contributions have come out of the backfield. 

The Bears’ offensive production has been predicated on establishing a constant presence on the ground, and the charge has been led by the newly minted D'Andre Swift.

After signing a three-year, $33.75 million extension with Chicago on September 11, Swift has continued to excel. Through the first six games of the 2026 season, he's totaled 398 rushing yards on 94 attempts (4.2 yards per carry) and added six touchdowns — tied for third in the NFL. An efficient receiver out of the backfield, he’s also caught 18-of-22 targets with 140 receiving yards, each good for fifth on the team.

Swift showed his high-ceiling in the Bears’ season-opener with 18 carries, 124 yards, and three touchdowns, but his per-game averages have fallen off significantly since that point. 

On the season, Chicago leads the NFL in total rushing attempts (36.0) and yards per game (160.7), but rank 18th in EPA/rush (-0.09) and 16th in rushing success rate (41.7%). They rank fourth in yards before contact (292) and 12th in yards before contact per carry (1.35), and have been excellent after contact — ranking second in yards (672) and ninth per-attempt (3.11). With more rushing attempts also comes more stuffed runs, where the Bears’ 40 ranks 31st in the NFL, but their stuffed run rate of 20.0% ranks 15th. 

Chicago's attempted more zone runs than any other team in the league (121), and ranks second in the NFL with 49.0% of their total rushing attempts coming on outside zone schemes (per SūmerSports). That’ll put stress on a New England run defense that has previously struggled to contain runs outside of the tackle box, but will also lend itself to explosive plays off of play-action — another area where Swift and the running game’s success has yielded great results. 

The Bears have run play-action on 33.1% of their total passing attempts on the season (fourth in the NFL), with Williams operating on the concept at an even higher rate (35.1%). When passing off of play-action, he’s completed 22-of-32 passing attempts (66.7%) with 222 yards (6.7 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer rating of 105.9.

Last week, the Patriots’ defense struggled to contain play-action passes, as Geno Smith completed all seven of his attempts with 126 yards and a touchdown to show for it. New England’s middling rushing defense has seen a boost the last two weeks (38 yards allowed in Week 4, 97 yards allowed in Week 5), but those totals were skewed due to game script/playing with a sizable lead. 

If Chicago is able to establish their ground game early and stick with it throughout, it will go a long way towards opening things up for Williams and the passing attack to gash the Patriots’ defense later on. New England will need to key in on Swift and force the Bears’ offense to become one-dimensional to control the pace of this game.

That’s been easier said than done against Chicago this season.

The Patriots are slowly, but surely, beginning to work their way back to health on the defensive side of the ball.

Christian Gonzalez returned to the lineup from a shoulder injury last week, and it appears that Carlton Davis III may be on-track for a sooner return, rather than later. His neck injury — first sustained in the season-opener — has kept him out of the last two games and off of the practice field entirely until this week. Davis returned as a limited participant on Tuesday, and while his game day status is still unclear, it’s an encouraging sign during a week where New England will need as many healthy bodies as possible to defend along the perimeter.

Elsewhere for the Patriots, Joshua Farmer (personal) did not participate in Monday’s walkthrough or Tuesday’s practice. Channing Canada (hamstring) and Karon Prunty (hamstring) were limited participants on Tuesday, while Kevin Byard III (chest), Christian Elliss (chest), Dre’Mont Jones (shoulder), and Craig Woodson (shoulder) were all listed on the injury report, but logged full participation on both days.

On the Bears’ offense, running back Kyle Monangai (thumb/toe) did not participate in either practice, while guard Jonah Jackson (hip/quadricep) returned in limited fashion on Tuesday. 

Chicago’s unique combination of innovative coaching and widespread talent make them a difficult matchup any time they take the field. With just three days to prepare for a primetime fight, New England will likely rely on the tendencies that have made them one of the NFL’s best at shutting down elite offenses through the first six weeks of the season.

The Patriots have shined with exotic pressure packages and multiple defensive fronts that constantly change the pre and post-snap pictures for their opposition — forcing quarterbacks to hold onto the ball and welcome incoming blitzers into the backfield while their top-tier secondary locks down everything over-the-top. 

Patience will need to be preached on both sidelines to avoid the back-breaking mistakes that can lose games of this magnitude. We’ll see if New England will be applying pressure on the Bears’ offense, or if they’ll be the team feeling it when Chicago heats up.

What will you be watching for when the Patriots’ defense attempts to shut down the Bears’ offense on Thursday night? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and join the conversation on Patriots Roundtable.

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