The New England Patriots bring one of the hottest defenses in the league to Denver, and will look to rattle Jarrett Stidham and the Broncos’ offense early and often on Sunday to secure a spot in Super Bowl LX.
While the New England Patriots took care of business against the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, the Denver Broncos won an exhilarating overtime contest against the Buffalo Bills, 33-30, to advance and host the AFC Championship Game at Mile High.
That victory came at a cost. The most impactful storyline of the week coming out of Saturday’s game was quarterback Bo Nix suffering a season-ending fractured ankle in the overtime period.
Nix engineered an efficient Broncos passing attack all year, finishing 2025 with 3,931 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions while completing 63.4% of his passes. He added 356 yards and five touchdowns rushing.
Under Nix, Denver ranked 14th in the NFL at 23.6 points per game and 10th in yards per game at 342.6.
Now, the Broncos turn to Jarrett Stidham in relief—and his four career starts are the fewest by a quarterback starting a conference championship game or Super Bowl ever.
He’s also a quarterback with whom the Patriots have familiarity.
Stidham began his career in New England, drafted 133rd overall in 2019, and spent two years with the Patriots before signing with Josh McDaniels and the Las Vegas Raiders in 2022. Stidham landed in Denver in 2023 and has been there since.
How will New England’s defense look to attack the Broncos’ hindered offense? Let’s dive in.
Keys to Victory
Stidham enters at quarterback having last seen the field during the 2023 season, when he played in three games, started two, and finished the year 40-of-66 (60.6%), 496 yards (7.5 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, one interception, a passer rating of 87.7, and seven sacks.
He has not thrown a pass in a game since.
He’ll face off against a New England defense that has been on a historic pace to begin the postseason, with a violent approach that has wrecked games for opposing offenses.
In the Wild Card Round, the Patriots blitzed Justin Herbert on 45.5% of dropbacks. When blitzed, Herbert went 7-for-16 (43.8%) with 69 yards (4.3 YPA) and a 56.5 passer rating. He was under pressure on 56.5% of his dropbacks and was sacked three times when New England blitzed. The Patriots accrued six sacks, 16 pressures, 11 quarterback hits, two forced fumbles, and one fumble recovery in the win.
In the Divisional Round, New England once again brought heat. The Patriots blitzed on 46.2% of dropbacks and pressured C.J. Stroud on 48.1% of dropbacks. When blitzed, Stroud went 8-of-23 (34.8% completion percentage), 89 yards (3.9 yards per attempt), with one touchdown, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 25.5. When pressured, he went 6-of-20 (30.0% completion percentage), 92 yards (4.6 yards per attempt), one interception, three sacks, and a passer rating of just 6.7 (per PFF).
Luckily for Stidham, there is a strong foundation in place around him. That starts with Sean Payton at head coach and a full week of preparation as the starter, but extends to an excellent offensive line and talent in the backfield and out wide.
Per PFF, Denver enters Sunday with the highest-graded offensive line in the league in pass blocking (78.8) and the seventh-highest-graded run-blocking unit (73.3). They’ve allowed the lowest sack percentage in the league (3.6%) and are tied for first in fewest sacks allowed (23).
With Garett Bolles (5th/89 tackles) and Mike McGlinchey (21st) manning the tackle spots, and Quinn Meinerz (1st/81 guards) anchoring the interior, there aren’t many obvious holes to pick apart up front—but there may be at least one.
On December 25, Denver placed starting center Luke Wattenberg on injured reserve. Wattenberg had taken over 1,000 snaps at center for the Broncos in 2025. To make matters worse, his replacement—Alex Forsyth—exited the Buffalo game with an ankle injury. The Broncos are hoping either of them can return for the AFC Championship.
Without Wattenberg—or potentially Forsyth—active for Sunday, the Broncos’ center-quarterback exchange and interior integrity will be worth monitoring, even if their pass protection has been largely outstanding through this point of the year.
Key #1: Keep the big dogs coming. Regardless of Denver’s offensive line performance this season, New England will want to present Stidham with everything and the kitchen sink to throw him off his game.
Through two games of the postseason, the Patriots’ defense has scored as many touchdowns as they’ve allowed, recorded nine sacks, pressured the quarterback on over 52% of dropbacks, and forced six takeaways. Opposing passers have been held to 39-of-78 (50%) passing with 313 net yards and a passer rating of just 43.4 against them in the playoffs.
Expect them to bring the heat again.
Denver will want to support Stidham and the passing game with a heavy use of a rushing attack that has been up-and-down this season. That starts up front, where the Broncos rank near the middle of the pack in rushing yards per game (118.7—16th) and yards per attempt (4.4—15th).
Leading the way in the backfield is second-round rookie R.J. Harvey, who took over the top role when J.K. Dobbins went on injured reserve in Week 10. Harvey totalled 540 rushing yards and 356 receiving yards on 47 receptions in 2025, scoring seven times on the ground and adding five more through the air as a versatile offensive threat.
The rookie rusher has struggled with efficiency on a per-play basis, however. Harvey’s rushing average is just 3.7 yards per carry, and it reflects the shift in Denver’s ground-game effectiveness in the latter stages of the season.
Seven of the Broncos’ top 10 team rushing totals on the year came prior to Dobbins’ injury, and they rushed for 100+ yards as a team just four times after he went out.
Denver received promising news early in the week, as Dobbins returned to practice and officially opened his window to return from IR. He led the Broncos in rushing this year with 772 yards on 5.0 yards per carry in 10 games.
Key #2: Sell out to stop the run. Like many of the Patriots’ opponents over the last month, Denver’s offense will be predicated on the effectiveness of its rushing attack. Dobbins—if active—is likely to be limited after his time on injured reserve. Harvey has struggled as a between-the-tackles runner, but he’s elusive in open space and is regularly utilized as a receiver.
Payton will find ways to involve them, and New England will need to be alert any time they touch the football.
Through this point of the postseason, the Patriots have excelled in taking opposing rushers out of the offensive game plan. They allowed just 30 yards to running backs in the Wild Card Round and 31 yards to running backs in the Divisional Round.
They’ll need to do it again to keep Denver out of the end zone on Sunday.
When the Broncos throw, all eyes will be on Courtland Sutton—the team leader in targets (124), receptions (74), yards (1,017), yards per touch (13.7), and receiving touchdowns (7) during the regular season.
At 6’4”, 215 lbs, Sutton plays primarily as a boundary receiver (84.1% of snaps) and has the size and speed to make life difficult for any defensive backfield in the league.
It’s safe to say he’ll be seeing a hefty helping of Christian Gonzalez in the AFC Championship Game.
Aside from Sutton and Harvey, Denver will look to heavily involve tight end Evan Engram, who finished third on the team in targets (76), receptions (50), and receiving yards (461). Engram has found the end zone just once in each of the last two seasons, and the 31-year-old has seen his production drop off significantly since an outstanding 2023 in Jacksonville, when he caught 114 passes.
Rounding out a young Broncos receiving corps are Troy Franklin (65 receptions, 709 yards, six touchdowns)—Nix’s former teammate at Oregon—rookie Pat Bryant (31 receptions, 378 yards, one touchdown), Marvin Mims (37 receptions, 322 yards, one touchdown), and former Patriot Lil’Jordan Humphrey, who caught a touchdown in the Broncos’ Divisional Round victory.
Key #3: Neutralize Sutton. Whether it’s Gonzalez shadowing, safety help over the top, or a combination of everything, New England can’t afford to have Sutton ripping off explosive plays downfield. With limited reps for Stidham coming in, the Patriots need to force him to hold the ball, process, and look elsewhere.
New England is 14-1 with Christian Gonzalez in the lineup this season, and the shutdown corner will need to fit the bill this weekend.
Gonzalez set career marks in passer rating allowed (64.4), catch percentage allowed (46.1%), and pass breakups (7) during the regular season, and he’s played stellar football through this point of the postseason. He allowed no catches on four targets and broke up two passes in the Wild Card Round before Houston decided to run him through the paces.
In the Divisional Round, Gonzalez saw more targets than any other defender in the regular season or postseason, and was thrown at 16 times during the game. The Texans’ gamble on Gonzalez proved fruitless; he allowed seven receptions for 58 yards (3.6 yards per target on a 43.8% catch rate, per Next Gen Stats).
His performance on Sutton this Sunday will be a key indicator of the defense’s success.
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The defensive blueprint for stopping Denver’s offense sans-Nix is similar to what we’ve seen in New England’s first two postseason matchups: stop the run, pressure the quarterback, and plaster receivers on the back end.
That strikes all of the same notes the Patriots have hit consistently on defense over the last month-plus.
Now, the unit takes its perfect road record—and a chip on its shoulder—into Mile High, where it will have to play to that aggressive, swarming identity one more time for a chance at the biggest prize of them all.
Will New England’s defense stifle Jarrett Stidham and the Broncos’ offense? Or will Sean Payton devise a game plan that keeps Denver competitive late into the contest?
Stay tuned for our upcoming preview of the Patriots’ offense vs. the Broncos’ defense, and this week’s Patriots Roundtable Podcast.
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