What to Watch For: New England Patriots Defense vs. Green Bay Packers Offense | Week 9 2026

The pack is back.

This Sunday, the New England Patriots (5-3) return to the comforts of Gillette Stadium to host the Green Bay Packers (5-3) in an interconference matchup of two teams with nearly identical trajectories. New England and Green Bay’s record have been mirror-images of each other all season, but this weekend, something must give. The Patriots have been exceptional at home through the first eight weeks of the regular season — amassing a perfect 3-0 record — and there will be a fanning of the fire on Sunday, with Tom Brady in the building for the FOX broadcast, Rob Gronkowski being inducted into the team’s Hall of Fame, and the Super Bowl LI Champions celebrating their 10th anniversary.

Between the white lines, however, the more intriguing side of the ball for New England will be on defense. The Packers’ offensive excellence has been dictated by an aggressive downfield passing attack that has challenged opposing secondaries over-the-top on a weekly basis, while the Patriots have branded themselves defensively on eliminating their opponents’ opportunities to do just that. 

Here’s what we’ll be watching for when New England’s defense lines up across from Green Bay’s offense:

Jordan Love has been the driving force of the Packers’ offense, and has been enjoying the greatest statistical successes of his career in doing so through the first two months of the regular season. 

Entering Week 9, Love leads the NFL in passing attempts (312) and passing yards (2,246), while completing 61.5% of his throws, tossing 16 touchdowns and six interceptions with a passer rating of 92.4 and an EPA/play of +0.11 (per PFF). On the back of Love’s contributions, Green Bay ranks third in passing attempts per game (39.1), second in passing yards per game (271.0), second in passing rate (66.7%), and sixth in passing touchdowns per game (2.0). 

Love’s totals have lifted the Packers to wins as they’ve dug out of a 1-2 hole to start the season, but his “touchdown or checkdown” mentality has hurt their efficiency analytically. Green Bay’s offense ranks 17th in the NFL in overall EPA/play (-0.04) and 27th in success rate (39.5%), while landing 12th in EPA/pass (+0.08) and 20th in passing success rate (42.0%, per SūmerSports).

One of the most aggressive downfield passers in the league, Love’s NFL-leading 52 attempts on passes of 20-plus air yards is 17 more than the second-highest ranked player, C.J. Stroud (35), but has been due in large part to the high-rate of passing he’s done, and come at a cost. 

Love has only completed 17 of those attempts — a 32.7% completion rate that’s good for 31st in the league — and his big-time-throw rate of 20.3% ranks 25th. His league-best 591 passing yards on such throws ranks slightly higher than Drake Maye (586 yards), who has completed 17-of-34 passes and tops the NFL with a 39.5% big-time-throw rate. Love has thrown four touchdowns and three interceptions on such attempts, with a turnover-worthy play rate of 11.9% (ninth-highest).

Despite his frequent use of the deep ball, Love ranks outside of the top-10 in yards per attempt (7.2, 15th), and is tied with Maye for third in the league in Average Depth of Target (ADoT, 9.8). The Packers have attempted short throws on 65.2% of overall attempts (22nd) while targeting deep at a 16.9% clip (third), yet have only generated explosive gains on 12.0% of offensive plays (23rd) and 15.0% of passing plays (18th). 

Love isn’t afraid to push the ball downfield, and the volume of passing attempts that Green Bay puts in his hands on a weekly basis gives him the green light to do so whenever available. Head coach Matt LeFleur has trusted Love with the keys to the castle, and the results have followed on the scoreboard for the Packers. 

That’s been to their detriment in efficiency at times, but makes them a danger to convert on field-flipping, momentum-swinging daggers for a full 60 minutes. It will be a challenge for the Patriots to contain Love and his array of receiving threats.

In seasons’ past, it’s been Green Bay’s rotation of several wide receivers with varying skill sets and usages that made the Packers a tough outing for opposing secondaries to defend against. But that hasn’t been the identity of their offense in 2026. 

Without Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks in the building anymore, Green Bay has relied heavily on Christian Watson and Matthew Golden for their production on the boundaries, and tight end Tucker Kraft to lead the way over the middle of the field. 

Watson has developed into Love’s most dependable wide receiver, and has grown more comfortably into a number one role with each passing year. Through eight games, Watson has already set career-best single-season marks for receptions (42), targets (66), yards (708), and his six touchdown catches are one shy of tying the seven he registered as a rookie in 2022. 

Golden, the Packers’ first round pick in 2025 (No. 23 overall), has seen the largest increase in role year-over-year with Green Bay’s departures — and while the highlight plays have been plentiful, there’s still room for growth on a per-snap basis. After recording 29 receptions on 44 targets, 361 yards, and no regular season touchdowns as a rookie, Golden leads the Packers with 42 receptions and 83 targets in 2026, but his 52.4% catch rate and NFL-leading nine drops leave obvious room for further improvement. He currently sits behind Watson for second on the team in receiving yards (619) and touchdowns (four). 

Kraft has been the clear third option in the Green Bay passing game with 35 receptions on 49 targets, 350 yards, and three touchdowns — and has found the end zone in two straight games. New England has held up well against opposing tight ends this season, ranking in the bottom-third with 43 receptions allowed on 63 targets, 419 yards, and two touchdowns.

The Packers’ list of receiving options drops off precipitously after those three. Running backs MarShawn Lloyd (13 receptions on 17 targets, 79 yards, one touchdown) and Josh Jacobs (11 catches on 13 targets, 68 yards, two touchdowns) — who has only been active for the past two games— are the only other pass-catchers to eclipse 10 receptions on the year. Savion Williams (eight receptions on nine targets, 84 yards) has been their preferred rotational substitute in 11 personnel packages (62.5% of offensive plays, ninth-highest rate in the NFL), but has only been active for three games. 

The vast majority of Green Bay’s receiving production has come versus zone coverage, which they’ve faced on 73.7% of snaps — the sixth-highest mark in the NFL (per PFF), but that’s not likely what they’ll see from New England. 

Entering Week 9, the Patriots have run man-to-man coverages at a 35.4% rate, the third-highest in the NFL. Mobile quarterbacks have been the primary factor in New England shifting from a man-coverage heavy team towards playing more zone, keeping more sets of eyes in the backfield in an attempt to contain the threat of the quarterback run. 

Against opposing quarterbacks with a sub-4.5% scramble rate on the season (i.e. not-named Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, or Malik Willis), the Patriots have run man coverages on 40.0% of quarterback dropbacks — the highest mark in the league. When facing those mobile quarterbacks, that rate dropped to 27.2% — the 10th highest mark in the NFL.

Love isn’t a threat in that regard. 

Through eight games, Love has gained a total of six rushing yards off of scrambles, the lowest mark in the NFL among quarterbacks with a minimum of 50 dropbacks. His singular scramble attempt and 0.3% scramble rate also rank last in the league. He’s totaled 11 rushing attempts, 10 rushing yards (0.91 yards per carry), and one rushing touchdown on the season.

Without the threat of the quarterback’s legs present, New England will be emboldened to resume their man-coverage tendencies — with Christian Gonzalez likely the matchup for Watson and a rotation of bracketing defenders shading over towards Golden and Kraft. Pressing the Packers' wide receivers at the line of scrimmage may also be in the plan when in man-coverage, throwing off the timing of a Green Bay passing attack that has been lethal when they've been able to play within structure, and Love when he's been able to release the football quickly.

It’s been a mixed bag for the Packers up-front amidst a similarly unfortunate injury situation as the Patriots. 

With Jacob Monk, Zach Bako-Bewele, Sean Rhyan, Aaron Banks, Donovan Jennings, and Travis Glover all missing time or on injured reserve, Green Bay has been forced to use a plethora of different offensive line combinations. And the results haven’t been kind in the passing or running game. 

When Love has dropped back to pass, the Packers rank last in the NFL in offensive line pass-blocking efficiency (50.2, per PFF). His NFL-best 2.48-second time-to-throw, 4.2% sack rate (seventh), and 11.4% pressure-to-sack rate (31st) have helped mitigate the oncoming rush, but he’s still faced pressure on 37.0% of dropbacks (20th).

Opponents have exploited Green Bay’s offensive line woes with called-blitzes on 40.4% of Love’s dropbacks, and that will likely continue with a blitz-happy defensive approach in Foxboro. 

Entering Week 9, New England has blitzed on 37.9% of defensive snaps — the seventh-highest rate in the league — but much like their man-coverage tendencies, the Patriots’ blitz rate has dropped significantly when facing mobile quarterbacks. Excluding matchups against Allen, Lawrence, and Willis, New England has brought additional rushers on 41.4% of plays — the second-highest mark in the NFL.

Applying pressure on Love has been a sure-fire way of forcing him into mistakes. 

When kept clean, Love has completed 143-of-205 passing attempts (69.8%) with 1,495 passing yards (7.0 yards per attempt), 13 touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 105.6 on the year. When under pressure, he’s completed 49-of-107 attempts (45.8%) with 751 yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions, 14 sacks, and a passer rating of 67.2. His turnover-worthy-play rate spikes from 1.8% to 8.1% when under pressure.

From Love’s lack of mobility to his poor splits when facing pressure, New England will be incentivized to continue bringing additional numbers in on the pass-rush plan. On late downs, that will help hasten his time-to-throw enough to prevent the frequent deep shots downfield. On early downs, that’ll help mask the past inefficiencies of their improving running defense against a Packers offensive line that has struggled mightily to generate space for their running backs to operate.

For as erratic as the Green Bay offensive line has been in pass-protection, they haven’t experienced the same highs and lows while run blocking. They’ve been extremely consistent in that area — consistently flawed. 

Statistically, analytically, or otherwise, the Packers’ ground-game has been largely non-existent all season; a major detractor for an otherwise promising group. Green Bay ranks last in the NFL in rushing yards per game (60.6), attempts per game (21.3), yards per attempt (2.9), and EPA/rush (-0.26). They rank 31st in rushing success rate (34.7%), yards before contact per attempt (0.65), yards after contact per attempt (2.21), and 29th in stuff-rate (24.9%).

The Packers have one offensive lineman with a run-blocking grade higher than 60.0: center Sean Rhyan, who suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 7 and has already been ruled out for Sunday’s game. Three of their next four highest-graded run blockers, Zach Bako-Bewele (57.6), Jacob Monk (52.7), and Travis Glover (52.0) are all out of the lineup due to injury, as well.

Without many of their top options up-front, the results for Green Bay’s running game have been abysmal. 

MarShawn Lloyd is the Packers’ leading rusher on the season, and has totalled 57 attempts, 149 yards, and two touchdowns in eight games. He’s averaging just 2.6 yards per carry and 18.6 yards per game, and ranks 66th in the NFL in EPA/rush (-0.32) and 50th in rushing success rate (35.1%) among running backs with at least 25 touches.

In two games with Josh Jacobs resuming his role as the top back in the Green Bay backfield, the improvements have been marginal at best. Jacobs has carried the ball 32 times for 75 yards (2.3 yards per attempt, 37.5 yards per game) and scored one rushing touchdown. His -0.14 EPA/rush ranks 45th in the league, and his 37.5% success rate ranks 41st. 

The Packers’ lifeless rushing attack might be just what the doctor ordered for a Patriots’ rushing defense that has started to build momentum over the last month. New England ranks sixth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (92.6) while facing the sixth-fewest attempts against per game (24.1), and is allowing the 10th-lowest yards per carry in the NFL (3.8). 

Since Week 5, the Patriots’ boast the third-best rushing defense in the NFL in EPA/rush allowed (-0.26), and sixth-best in rushing success rate against (37.6%), while lowering their yards allowed per game to 81.3 and yards allowed per rush to 3.3 (third-best in the NFL). They’ve registered the fourth-lowest yards before contact per attempt (0.5), and have stuffed runs at the ninth-highest rate (24.5%).

Sunday evening’s contest against Green Bay should be another game where New England is able to force their opponent into a one-dimensional offensive approach, although the Packers’ lack of success on the ground may see them make that transition preemptively.

The Patriots have started to return to health on the defensive side of the football in recent weeks, but that hasn’t entirely prevented the injury bug from creeping back.

No defensive players were ruled out for Sunday on New England’s side, but two more names were added to the injury report this week: Marcus Jones and Brenden Schooler. Jones missed Thursday’s practice with a foot injury, but returned as a full participant on Friday and carries no injury designation into the weekend. Schooler was also added to the injury report on Thursday, as a hamstring issue led to two limited practices on Thursday and Friday and a “questionable” game day status.

Kevin Byard III (chest), Carlton Davis III (neck), Gabe Jacas (knee), and Dre’Mont Jones (shoulder/knee) were all limited on Wednesday and Thursday, but logged a full practice on Friday. Byard and Davis are listed as questionable for the Patriots, while Jacas and Jones carry no injury designation. Christian Barmore missed Wednesday’s practice due to illness, but was back as a full participant for the remainder of the week.

Green Bay’s offense will once again be shorthanded on the offensive line, as tackle Travis Glover (knee) and center Sean Rhyan (ankle) will each miss their second consecutive games after suffering injuries in Week 7. Tight end Josh Whyle (concussion) has also been ruled out, while running backs MarShawn Lloyd (knee) and Chris Brooks (ankle) are listed as questionable. Guard Aaron Banks (knee) and wide receiver Christian Watson (rib) were both limited in practice all week, but carry no game day status for the Packers.

It will be strength-on-strength when the New England defense faces off against the Green Bay offense. The Packers lay claim to one of the NFL’s most potent downfield passing attacks, while the Patriots boast one of the league’s stingiest secondaries against downfield throws. Green Bay has become accustomed to winning in games that they’ve been decidedly one-dimensional on the offensive side of the ball, while New England’s defense has feasted on opponents that they’ve forced into similar gameplan structures. Each unit will be looking to assert their dominance over the other; whichever prevails in this matchup will go a long way to deciding the game’s outcome.

What will you be watching for when the Patriots’ defense takes on the Packers’ offense on Sunday evening? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and join the conversation on Patriots Roundtable.

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