What to Watch For: New England Patriots Defense vs. Miami Dolphins Offense | Week 8 2026

Welcome to Miami.

This Sunday, the New England Patriots (4-3) will look to return to their winning ways in a previous house of horrors, with a trip down to South Beach for an AFC East clash against the Miami Dolphins (1-5) on deck. The early stretch of the 2026 regular season was not kind to the home squad, but recent offensive success and emerging playmakers have begun to write a different story for a Miami squad poised to challenge a reeling New England defense at all three levels.

Here’s what we’ll be watching for when the Patriots’ defense lines up across from the Dolphins’ offense:

Former Tennessee Titans’ and Green Bay Packers’ backup Malik Willis has taken the reins as the full-time starter in Miami for the first time in his five-year NFL career, and the results to that experiment have been underwhelming in large part.

Through the team’s first six games, Willis has completed 87-of-151 passes (57.6% completion percentage) with 1,057 yards, four touchdowns, four interceptions, three lost fumbles, and a passer rating of 77.1. He’s added 35 carries, 223 rushing yards, and three rushing touchdowns to his totals.

As a team, the Dolphins’ 162.0 passing yards per game ranks 30th in the NFL, as does their 16.3 points per game average.

Willis’ completion percentage ranks 33rd in the NFL, his 3.1% big time throw rate ranks 24th, and his 5.0% turnover worthy play rate ranks 30th (per PFF). He’s struggled to establish and maintain meaningful connections with the vast majority of the talent-depleted skill position groups that surround him, but Miami’s last two games may show signs of life that weren’t present earlier in the season.

With 24 points scored against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 5 (followed by a Week 6 bye) and a 28-point performance in a victory over the New York Jets in Week 7 — the Dolphins’ first of 2026 — Willis and Miami have begun mounting momentum for the first time this fall. Over the course of the past three weeks, Willis’ +0.11 EPA/play ranks 12th among all starting quarterbacks, and his 49.3% success rate ranks 11th (per SūmerSports).

A constant threat to take off and run, Willis’ 12.1% scramble rate is the highest of any quarterback that’s started every game around the league, and his 23 total scrambles and nine 10-plus yard runs are tied with Drake Maye for the most in the NFL (Maye’s scramble rate is 9.2%). He's gained 207 yards off of scrambles, ranking third in the league behind Maye (213) and Jayden Daniels (212). A strength of the New England defense, the Patriots have only allowed 56 yards on scrambles all season (sixth in the NFL).

Unlike some of the previous quarterbacks New England has faced off with when matched up against the Dolphins, Willis isn’t afraid to air the ball out. Among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks this season, Willis’ 19.2% deep throw rate ranks first in the NFL, and his 9.63-yard Average Depth of Target (ADoT) ranks second.

Overall, that’s come at the cost of efficiency, but has started to yield greater results for Miami of late. Willis’ affinity for the big play and elusiveness as a runner make him a threat to create explosive gains at any point — although sustaining that level of performance has been more of a challenge.

Applying pressure has been an effective way to neutralize Willis and the Dolphins’ passing attack — and that pressure has come in droves to begin the season.

Miami has allowed Willis to be pressured on a league-worst 47.4% of his total dropbacks on the season (per SūmerSports). He’s registered a pressure-to-sack rate of 17.8% (23rd) and a sack rate of 8.4% (29th) while being blitzed at the 13th-highest rate (32.1%). 

Willis has been unreliable at best when under pressure this season. On 85 dropbacks under pressure, he’s taken 16 sacks and has completed 27-of-56 passes (48.2%) with 285 yards (5.1 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, three interceptions, a 5.4% turnover worthy play rate, and a passer rating of 53.1. When blitzed, he’s completed 32-of-59 passing attempts (54.2%) with 424 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, a turnover worthy play rate of 5.3%, and a passer rating of 81.5 (per PFF).

That plays right into the hands of Mike Vrabel and Zak Kuhr, who have built the Patriots’ defense around adding additional bodies into the pass-rush plan. Through seven weeks of the regular season, New England ranks fourth in the NFL in blitz rate (40.3%) and pressure rate (42.7%).

Bringing the heat at Willis will almost certainly be a large part of the Patriots’ gameplan on Sunday, but they’ll need to be cautious of his legs when doing so. When under pressure, Willis’ scramble rate spikes to 16.5% — the second-highest rate in the NFL. 

Keeping a spy lurking over the middle of the field and using the edge rushers to keep contain will be key in forcing him to stand in the pocket and deliver against pressure — something he hasn’t consistently done all season long. Those extra bodies at the line of scrimmage will also help against a Dolphins’ offense that has been much more dangerous on the ground than they have been through the air.

Miami’s most lethal offensive weapon, De’Von Achane, won’t be on the field to torment a New England defense that has previously struggled to contain the speedster. He landed on season-ending injured reserve with a torn right ACL after the Dolphins’ September 27 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

It’s been second-year running back Ollie Gordon II that has taken over as the de facto top option in the backfield for Miami — and he’s had great success in that time, rushing for 100-plus yards in two of the Dolphins’ last three games and scoring a touchdown in four consecutive games.

Now the team’s leading rusher on the year, Gordon has already set career-best marks in attempts (72), rushing yards (339), and touchdowns (four), while averaging 4.7 yards per carry — the ninth-highest average in the NFL (minimum 50 carries). 

Gordon has generated more explosive plays than expected. Of his 72 carries, 10 have gone for 10-plus yards (t-14th in the NFL), while his 13.9% stuff rate ranks as the ninth-lowest in the league. He’s registered the sixth-highest yards before contact average (1.64 YBC/attempt), and ranks 12th with 3.07 yards after contact per rush. 

As a team, Miami’s 131.5 average rushing yards per game ranks seventh in the NFL, and their 28.5 rushing attempts per game rank 11th. The Dolphins are sixth in the league with a +0.01 EPA/rush, yet rank just 25th in rushing success rate (38.0%) — meaning they’ve generated frequent explosive plays, but have been unable to sustain consistent success on a per-carry basis.

Miami will stick with the run throughout, but have severely lowered their usage of outside zone and edge-attacking running concepts in favor of a more gap-scheme reliant rushing preference this season. Gordon has been a great fit for that in the absence of Achane, but that plays into the favor of a Patriots’ defense that has struggled to contain the edges against the run going back through 2025 and beyond.

This season, it’s been the interior of New England’s defensive line that have struggled to generate force at the point of attack. Nose tackles Cory Durden (33.6 run defense grade, 120th of 124 interior defensive linemen), and DaQuan Jones (30.0, 124th) haven’t effectively filled those roles, but Sunday presents a new opportunity to do so. 

More will be needed from them if the Patriots are to control the Dolphins at the line of scrimmage and force Willis into a dropback passing game. 

Miami has been devoid of significant contributions from many of their options on the outside, leading to inefficiencies in the passing attack and an overreliance on Willis’ individual playmaking ability in that area.

The Dolphins’ offseason was highlighted by a mass exodus of many of their former starters at wide receiver, leaving Malik Washington as their top wideout to begin the season. Thus far, he leads the team in targets (39) and receptions (26) by a sizable margin, and also ranks first in receiving yards (289), but has yet to find the end zone.

At 5’8”, 196-pounds, Washington’s quick twitch abilities have been used all over the formation, with a dead-even split in reps out-wide (139) and in the slot (139) through six games. He’s also added 20 snaps in the backfield, and has carried the ball eight times for 38 yards.

Tight end Greg Dulcich has also been an effective playmaker for Miami, ranking second on the team in targets (22), receptions (18), and receiving yards (213). New England’s improved ability at shutting down opposing tight ends has been tested through recent matchups with Brock Bowers and Colston Loveland, and Dulcich’s assured involvement will be another in that line of challenges.

With sparring contributions from rookies Chris Bell (20 targets, eight receptions, 117 yards) and Kevin Coleman (18 targets, five receptions, 36 yards, one touchdown), it has been Caleb Douglas who has quickly asserted himself into the conversation as the Dolphins most dangerous boundary threat.

Douglas missed Weeks 3-5 with a right ankle injury and didn’t return to the lineup until after the team’s Week 6 bye, but has made his impact felt in just three career games played. The 6’4”, 208-pound receiver fills a much different profile than Miami’s other boundary options, and has hauled in nine receptions on 13 targets, ranks third on the team with 183 receiving yards (20.3 yards per reception), and leads the Dolphins with two touchdown receptions on the season.

If any player is going to receive the “shadow” treatment from Christian Gonzalez, it will likely be Douglas, who’s amassed a 15.3% target share in games he’s played in and has registered an ADoT of 12.3 yards on the season. Still, Miami’s continued inefficiencies passing the ball, paired with a Patriots’ secondary that’s excelled at taking away their opposition’s best receivers, plays heavily into New England’s favor.

The Dolphins may lean on Washington’s ability to create yards after the catch, but with Gonzalez taking away Douglas and a rally-and-tackle mentality on everything underneath, the Patriots should be able to own their matchup on the outside. A better effort will be needed than the 17 missed tackles they put on film against the Chicago Bears last Thursday, but New England will be eager to show improvement in that area against a team that relies on yards-after-catch to manufacture production through the air. 

For the first time since Week 3, the Patriots may field their full complement of starters in the secondary.

Carlton Davis III (neck) returned to practice as a full participant this week and is officially listed as questionable for Sunday. Elsewhere on New England’s defense, linebacker Christian Elliss (chest) also carries a questionable tag into game day, but has been playing with that same designation since early October without missing time.

DaQuan Jones (back) was limited on Wednesday and Thursday, but logged a full practice on Friday and carries no injury designation into the weekend. Kevin Byard III (chest), Channing Canada (hamstring), Dre’Mont Jones (shoulder), and Karon Prunty (hamstring) were also listed on the injury report for the Patriots’ defense during the week, but were full participants in practice each day.

Miami’s offense will be without the services of guard/tackle Kadyn Proctor (concussion), who has already been ruled out for Sunday. Malik Willis (groin), running back Jaylen Wright (foot/quad), wide receivers Malik Washington (knee) and Jared Wayne (knee), and tight ends Greg Dulcich (ankle) and Will Kacmarek (hamstring) were also listed on the Dolphins’ injury report, but carry no game day status going into the weekend.

Miami’s offense has shown clear signs of improvements in their last two contests, using a multiple, downhill ground game to set up a more efficient aerial attack for their quarterback and outside playmakers. Their commitment to the run and constant knack for generating yards after the catch pose an intriguing threat for a New England defense that’s struggled to contain offenses that major in those areas, but their lack of sustained success and high-level talent could present the visitors with an opportunity to right many of their recent wrongs on that side of the football.

What will you be watching for when the Patriots’ defense takes on the Dolphins’ offense on Sunday? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and join the conversation on Patriots Roundtable.

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