What to Watch For: New England Patriots Offense vs. Buffalo Bills Defense | Week 4 2026

It’s that time of year again.

The New England Patriots (1-2) are set to begin divisional play this weekend with a trip to Orchard Park, where the AFC East-rival Buffalo Bills (3-0) and a new-look defense under coordinator Jim Leonhard await. After three consecutive performances to begin the season in which New England left meat on the bone offensively, their search for stability will face more road blocks against a Buffalo defense eager for an opportunity to pounce. To come out on top, the Patriots’ offense will need to find balance, and leave their early-season woes in the past.

Here’s what we’ll be watching for when the New England offense lines up against the Bills’ defense:

Drake Maye’s early-season struggles have been the subject of national headlines as the Patriots’ offense has gotten off to a slow start to the 2026 regular season, and have been well-chroniced here and elsewhere at length. But while the prospect of playing in Buffalo amidst the turbulence of self-inflicted ineptitudes may be daunting, the Bills’ defense may pave a pathway towards growth. 

Earlier this week, we dissected how the Patriots may look to attack Buffalo’s new-look defense under coordinator Jim Leonhard — a unit that specializes with an efficient four-man pass-rush and a heavy use of Cover 3 on the back-end. Last season, Maye excelled against defenses of that variety, with 125 completions on 166 passing attempts (75.3% completion percentage), 1,637 passing yards, seven touchdowns, two interceptions, and an NFL-best EPA/play of +0.454.

That script has been flipped through the first three games of the 2026 season. Against Cover 3, Maye has completed 13-of-25 passes (59.1% completion percentage) with 140 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and ranks 30th in EPA/play at -0.223. More of Maye’s transgressions against Cover 3 may be due to its similar single-high safety presentation to Cover 1, however, where New England’s third-year signal-caller has completed just 5-of-15 passing attempts (33.3% completion percentage) with 87 yards and holds the league’s 32nd-ranked EPA/play of -0.314. In Week 3, Maye completed just 2-of-9 passes for 10 yards against Cover 1 (per SūmerSports).

Unlike Leonhard’s Denver Broncos — where he was the defensive pass game coordinator in 2025 — Buffalo has been unable to run Cover 1 as a change-up to Cover 3 with any success. Through three games, the Bills have allowed a completion percentage of 75.0%, two touchdowns, and account for an offensive EPA/play of +1.175 when running Cover 1 — essentially forcing them to play exclusively zone coverages. 

Slowly beginning to solve his recent deficiencies against Cover 6 (5-of-6 with 68 yards passing in Week 3) and with continued efficiency against Cover 2 and Cover 4, Maye has the chance to put much better film out against a defense that should be relatively vanilla in scheme. Buffalo is talented on that side of the ball, but pales in comparison to the units Maye’s squared-off with dating back to the onset of last season’s playoff run.

Maye will need to rekindle some of the magic from his 2025 form to generate offense for the Patriots this weekend, and the Bills may just enable him to do so — if he’s kept clean.

The New England offensive line has already taken many forms to begin 2026, especially along the interior — where they're are set to start their third different right guard in four games.

This week, it’s 2025 super-substitute Ben Brown’s crack at the starting lineup after Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten were both placed on injured reserve and Walter Rouse’s performance in relief of the two left more to be desired. Brown was a valuable member of the group last fall when called upon as a spot-starter, and will be targeted as the weak link up-front by an aggressive Buffalo pass-rush this weekend.

The Bills have leaned into a four-man rush on 75% of opposing dropbacks, and their standard rush is generating pressure at a notably higher clip than the league-average (41.9% vs. 37.0%). To generate pressure with their front-four, Buffalo has run stunts on 53 of 124 dropbacks — a 42.7% stunt rate — well above the league-wide rate of 28.2% over the same window, and the highest mark in the NFL. When they do stunt, they generate pressure at a 50.9% clip.

That’ll likely return on Sunday, as the Bills’ EPA/play allowed with five rushers spikes to +0.359 and +1.115 with six-plus rushers. They’ll save blitzes for key downs and distances, but will overwhelmingly attack the Patriots front line with a standard four-man plan.

Buffalo edge rusher Gregory Rousseau will need to see additional attention via chips and double-teams frequently, as the former first-round pick is already on-pace for a career year. Rousseau leads the NFL in sacks (6.0), tackles for loss (eight), and forced fumbles (three), and enables the Bills’ to navigate through the majority of their games with as much of a reliance on the front-four as they’ve thus far shown. The pass-rushing specialist holds a grade of 90.2 (per PFF), which ranks fourth among 110 qualifying edge defenders in 2026, and his 25.5% pass-rush win-rate tops the team.

For New England, they’ll need to be much more sturdy in providing a clean pocket for Maye to navigate on a per-snap basis. Through three games, the Patriots have allowed pressure at the second-highest rate in the NFL (48.1% of dropbacks) and sacks at the fourth-highest rate (8.5%), while being blitzed at just the 23rd-highest rate (26.4%).

When under pressure, Maye has completed 12-of-28 attempts (42.9% completion percentage) with 183 yards, no touchdowns, three interceptions, eight sacks, and a passer rating of 25.4, per PFF. On such plays, he’s registered a 10.6% turnover-worthy play rate, which ranks third-highest in the NFL among qualifying quarterbacks.

Maye has been guilty of holding onto the ball for a significant amount of time in the pocket — his average time to throw of 3.18 seconds is third-highest in the league — but the truth lies somewhere in the middle. To keep pace in Orchard Park, Maye will need to be more decisive, and the group in front of him will need to give him the time and space to execute.

New England’s offensive line will also need to find ways to generate more consistent push off of the line of scrimmage on running downs. 

On the season, the Patriots rank 17th in the NFL in rushing success rate (41.2%), 20th in yards-per-carry (3.86), and have gained 227 yards after contact to just 101 yards before contact. They hold the ninth-highest stuffed run rate in the league at 23.0%, while seeing heavy-box numbers at the 25th-highest rate (20.0%).

Fortunately, Buffalo’s light front may open lanes for New England’s ground game to get back on-track. 

From Weeks 1-3, the Bills rank 26th in the NFL in defensive EPA/rush (+0.01) and 24th in success rate (46.3%) while allowing opponents to rush for over four yards per carry. They’ve stuffed runs at the seventh-highest rate in the league (24.0%), but when the dam breaks, opposing rushers have found plenty of daylight. The Bills have surrendered nine 10-plus yard rushes on the season, tied for the sixth-most in the league.

Attacking Buffalo on the ground will be key to maintaining a more reasonable balance than the Patriots have found through the first month of the regular season, but it will also require a much better showing by New England’s running backs on a per-snap basis. Sans one 39-yard explosive play from TreVeyon Henderson in Week 2, both of the Patriots’ starting running backs have averaged less-than four yards per carry — with Henderson (2.6) and Rhamondre Stevenson (3.7) each struggling to find footing. 

Each of them will play a part in improving New England’s ground game, with more stability from the offensive line in front of them a prerequisite for any success in that area.

Knowing the Patriots will be seeing a high-rate of Cover 3 from the Buffalo secondary should help scheme their pass-catchers into the gameplan, but that’s been easier said than done for many of the new staples of the downfield attack through the first month of the regular season.

Maye has been slow to develop rapport with his wideouts without A.J. Brown in action, and that has been particularly notable with those players who did not play a large role in the team’s 2025 success. Free agent addition Romeo Doubs has taken over as the offense’s top “Z” receiver and de facto number one option out-wide, but has registered six catches on 11 targets (two drops) and 145 yards — with 96 coming in Week 2 alone.

DeMario Douglas has been around the team for four years, but was usurped in the lineup last season in favor of Stefon Diggs. Now on the receiving end of an elevated role in the slot, he’s has recorded seven catches on 14 targets and 67 receiving yards, but has just one catch in each of the last two games. Expanded opportunity has also come Kyle Williams’ way, but he’s registered just two receptions and was blanketed in coverage on Maye’s second Week 3 interception.

Those who already had chemistry with Maye have been productive, but not to the same degree this fall. Mack Hollins currently leads all Patriots’ receivers with 12 receptions, 16 targets, and 156 receiving yards; his 46 catches and 65 targets ranked as the second-highest marks for New England wide receivers during last year’s regular season, trailing only Stefon Diggs.

Fresh off of a three-year contract extension in training camp, tight end Hunter Henry has also gotten off to a slow — but more efficient — start in 2026. He’s hauled in seven of 10 targets with 71 receiving yards, but has failed to leave a lasting impact on any one contest for New England. 

Against the Bills’ Cover 3, Henry and rookie Eli Raridon (if healthy) could be targets up the seams of the defense frequently, while offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels’ finds ways to scheme Douglas and Doubs open over the intermediate areas of the field more frequently than they have been. If Buffalo takes away those routes with matching principles, Maye will look to target the flats — and the running backs could be much more involved in the passing game if that’s the case. Quietly, Stevenson currently ranks second on the team in receptions (nine), and is tied with Doubs for third in targets (11).

Douglas was also involved as an underneath receiver in the season-opener, but produced just 20 yards on five catches and failed to generate much after the catch — a growing theme for Patriots’ pass-catchers, who have forced a combined total of zero missed tackles on the year. 

Those chances should be there against the Bills’ secondary, as each of Christian Benford (40.6 defensive grade, 95th of 97 cornerbacks), Maxwell Hairston (56.7 defensive grade, 62nd), and Dee Alford (40.0 defensive grade, 96th) have been leaky in coverage through three games, to say the least. Safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson has been Buffalo’s most reliable coverage defender, posting a coverage grade of 85.9 that ranks third among safeties league-wide, per PFF. Gardner-Johnson recorded the team’s lone interception of the season last week.

Much like New England’s defense, the Patriots’ offense features some high-profile names on the injury report for Week 4.

Drake Maye (right shoulder) popped up on this week’s practice report for the first time this season, but was a full participant all week and does not carry an injury designation. Right tackle Morgan Moses (foot) did not participate in practice on Wednesday or Thursday, and returned in a limited capacity on Friday. Former Bills’ fullback Reggie Gilliam (knee) did not participate on Thursday and logged limited participation tags on Wednesday and Friday, while Eli Raridon (thigh) was limited all week. Moses, Gilliam, and Raridon are all questionable for Sunday.

Buffalo’s defense could take a big hit with top cornerback Christian Benford (toe) logging three consecutive “did not participates” this week. He carries a questionable designation, while interior defensive lineman T.J. Sanders (illness) is doubtful to play for the Bills this weekend. 

An early-season trip to Orchard Park is set to challenge New England on both sides of the ball, but for the Patriots’ offense, may open a window to mounting momentum that has yet to shine through in the first month of the regular season. To do so, Maye and the rest of the starters will need to perform at their best — limiting the self-inflicted wounds that have plagued them early on and taking advantage of the few openings the Bills’ will provide. New England has a chance to keep pace in Buffalo, but it will require a more complete effort than they’ve put together thus far.

What will you be watching for when the Patriots’ offense lines up across from the Bills’ defense? Drop your thoughts in the comments below and join the conversation on Patriots Roundtable.

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