New Year’s Resolution: Vote Maye For MVP

Happy New Year 2026!

This year, I’d like to make a resolution: let’s vote the NFL’s most valuable player as the MVP of the league.

That seems simple, right?

Apparently not — at least if you’re one of the fifty chosen few that actually cast a ballot for MVP.

On Monday Night Football in Week 17, the Atlanta Falcons upset the Los Angeles Rams, and quarterback Matthew Stafford — then the betting favorite for MVP — threw three interceptions in the loss.

During and following the game, the market for NFL MVP shifted heavily toward Drake Maye — and rightfully so.

The fallout from Stafford’s performance? Legacy media from around the country argued in favor of Stafford. From Pat McAfee and Dan Orlovsky to Rich Eisen, a showering of praise came in for Stafford.

They argue that “nobody in Vegas reached out to them” during the game, voters aren’t reactionary to one performance, and that Maye has faced a much easier schedule — his statistics are just a reflection of the competition he’s faced.

What they’re really trying to say is: “I know Stafford’s had some stinkers as of late, but he’s 37 and Maye is only 23. Maye will have his turn.”

Respectfully, that’s missing the point. And that’s exactly how voters have conducted business across the league for years — from Hall of Fame voting down to annual awards.

Different voters? Maybe. But as much as they'd like to tell you otherwise, it's all the same mindset.

Yes, Stafford is 37 and hasn’t won a regular season MVP award through this point of his career. Yes, Stafford leads the league in touchdown passes and is second in passing yards.

That’s where his argument ends — and where Maye’s begins.

First, let’s get a little context for where the Los Angeles Rams are as a team as we turn the page to playoff football in the opening days of 2026.

Over the course of the past two weeks, the Rams have fallen from the number-one seed in the NFC to the sixth-seed. They’re now in third place in their own division — behind the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.

In a thrilling Thursday night game in Seattle two weeks ago, Stafford and the Rams blew a 16-point fourth quarter lead and lost in overtime to lose control of the division. They followed that up with another loss in Atlanta on Monday night. Both came in standalone prime time matchups.

Since Week 13, Stafford has thrown six interceptions. The only quarterbacks with more in that span are Brady Cook (7) and Shedeur Sanders (8).

Now finding themselves looking up at others in the conference, the sixth-seed Rams will be playing exclusively road games en route to Super Bowl LX.

MVP’s from a sixth-seed are extremely rare. The last time a player won the MVP seeded that low was Peyton Manning in 2006.

Prior to Manning, you have to go all the way back to O.J. Simpson in 1973 to find an MVP seeded that low. Buffalo didn't make the playoffs that year, but the juice got loose for 2,003 rushing yards.

The most valuable player is — and should be — on a team that’s one of the highest ranked in their conference.

We can’t blame Stafford’s supporting cast for the Rams’ downturn.

To start, he has a Super Bowl winning offensive guru at head coach in Sean McVay. Puka Nacua is an Offensive Player of the Year candidate with 119 receptions for 1,639 yards and ten total touchdowns. Davante Adams still leads the NFL in receiving touchdowns (14) and hasn’t played in either of the Rams’ last two games. Kyren Williams ranks seventh in the league in rushing yards (1,192) and has scored 10 touchdowns.

Everything around Stafford has been just right, and that kind of structure could breed success for any of the top quarterbacks in the league. Now that Adams has been out, we're starting to see the warts.

Was Adams that much of a loss the last two weeks? He might have been, considering that 24 of Stafford’s touchdown passes have come inside the 10 yard-line and 16 inside the five yard-line in a Rams’ offensive scheme that heavily featured Adams in the passing game near the goal line.

Another master stroke from McVay.

The MVP is not a “supporting cast” award. Nor is it a lifetime achievement award.

Even if it were, we all saw what Stafford looked like in Detroit with less talent around him (he still had a Hall of Famer at wide receiver in Calvin Johnson) — no playoff appearances.

If anything, the strength of Stafford’s supporting cast should hinder his argument as “most valuable.” Pair that with the downturn the Rams have taken in the most crucial weeks of the regular season, and it’s harder to make an argument for him than against him.

Stafford has needed to play excellent for the Rams to position themselves well entering a tightly-contested NFC playoff race, and he's fallen short of that in the win-loss column the last two weeks.

Stafford had a great stretch of regular season games with a host of talent around him. While commendable and extremely exciting to watch, that doesn’t categorize him as the most valuable player in the league for the entirety of the year.

In one offseason, the Patriots have gone from 13 losses to 13 wins, and Maye has been the catalyst.

The Patriots offense is averaging 28.3 points-per-game and has scored 30+ seven times. Prior to 2025, the last time the Patriots scored 30+ points was on October 16, 2022 against the Cleveland Browns (the only time they scored 30+ in 2022).

The Patriots did make personnel changes around Maye. His additions in the receiver room this year were Stefon Diggs (970 yards, 4 touchdowns), Mack Hollins (550 yards, 2 touchdowns), Kyle Williams (209 yards, 3 touchdowns) and Efton Chism (40 yards, 1 touchdown).

Combined, they account for about as much production (1,769 yards, 10 touchdowns) as Nacua (1,639 yards, 10 total touchdowns) has had on the year.

While Stafford was throwing three interceptions in Week 17, Maye engineered six touchdown drives on six possessions and went 19-of-21 for 256 yards with five touchdown passes to five different receivers.

Maye made his 28th career start look like a walkthrough — while missing the left side of his offensive line and two of his top three receivers on the year — and was able to take a seat halfway through the third quarter. It was his second game with a 90+ completion percentage, 200+ passing yards, and two-plus touchdowns on the year.

Week 17 was a microcosm of how well other MVP candidates have done trying to maintain the consistent level of high performance Maye has displayed over the course of the 2025 season.

Early on, it was Baker Mayfield. Then, Patrick Mahomes. Jonathan Taylor. Josh Allen. Matthew Stafford. Several have come and gone through the season-long race, but only one has remained throughout the course of the entire season: Maye.

Deservingly so.

Through 16 games, Maye has thrown for 4,203 yards on a 71.7% completion percentage with 30 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. He’s added 409 yards rushing and four rushing touchdowns. All while leading the league with 8.9 yards-per-attempt.

On prime time, Maye is 4-0. He's completed 102-of-139 passes (73.4%) with 1,216 yards (304 yards-per-game), five touchdowns, and one interception in those games.

The road prime time games that Stafford just lost back-to-back? Maye went 2-0 in those, with wins at Buffalo and at Baltimore.

Maye accounts for 288 of the Patriots 374 yards-per-game (73%) when including his rushing totals, as opposed to Stafford’s 278 of 394 (70%). Here’s a closer look at how the two compare in head-to-head in statistical measures through 17 weeks:

Stafford's thrown more touchdowns, but Maye laps him with a better record, more total yardage, and higher marks in completion percentage, passer rating, QBR, yards-per-attempt, EPA-per-play and CPOE. 

While those earlier points are common statistical measures, the latter are analytical metrics used to grade quarterback efficiency.

Maye ranks first in the NFL in EPA-per-play (expected points added) at .27. The cumulative score for the average MVP sits at .28. Stafford sits at .19 in EPA/Play.  EPA is designed to grade quarterbacks on their efficiency on a per-dropback basis.

Per NextGenStats, Maye also ranks first in the league in CPOE (completion percentage above expectation — used to grade quarterbacks on their accuracy) at 8.9%. Stafford ranks 13th with 1.6%.

Here's how that looks compared to other NFL quarterbacks this year.

Maye has been deadly accurate and highly efficient. No matter the situation, coverage, or conditions, Maye has performed at an elite level.

Here’s a look at his rankings for passer rating per situation (per NextGenStats):

Yes, his coaching staff is much improved. And yes, the Patriots do play a weaker strength of schedule. But even in games against common opponents, Maye is outperforming Stafford:

Maye is 6-0 against common opponents while Stafford is 4-2. Maye has accounted for the same number of total touchdowns and holds higher marks yards, completion percentage, passer rating, and EPA-per-play.

We could keep going with the numbers all day, but one thing is clear:

This isn’t a “Maye vs. Stafford” debate. It’s a voter mentality debate.

Yes, Maye is far younger than Stafford. But in 2025, he’s been the better performing player.

Stafford has put up impressive numbers, but as we near the end of the season, the Rams have lost considerable ground in playoff seeding with critical back-to-back losses.

With Stafford's supporting cast banged up, his performance has been more important than ever.

The Rams lack of recent success in the win-loss column with Stafford shouldering the load doesn’t compare to the weight Maye consistently bears with the Patriots.

Maye has looked scheme-proof defensively and personnel-proof offensively. He doesn’t just execute the offense — he amplifies it, getting production out of whoever is available that week. He elevates those around him, and he spreads confidence as much as he spreads the ball. 

And he's done it all year long.

A New Year’s Look Back

In historical context, Maye would be the clear choice. Here’s a look at how similarly graded second-year quarterbacks have fared in their MVP races:

Maye tops the field with a historically high mark for completion percentage (71.7) that is on-pace to shatter Tom Brady's 2007 Patriots' franchise record at 68.9%.

Dan Marino (1984), Patrick Mahomes (2018), and Lamar Jackson (2019) all won the MVP in their second season with similar statistics to Maye. Marino and Mahomes edge out Maye in yards and touchdowns, but have similar passer ratings and yards-per-attempt, where Jackson falls behind.

Peyton Manning (1999) was the only other quarterback to go from 13 losses to 13 wins, and he had significantly lower measures in yards-per-game (263.0), touchdowns (26), completion percentage (62.1%), passer rating (90.7), yards-per-attempt (7.8), and more interceptions (15). 

Tom Brady (2001) started 14 of 16 games — and we all know the story there. He's the only Super Bowl winner on the list from his second season. He'd go on to win six more (I just had to get that in there).

As we turn the calendar to 2026, the more logical comparisons for Drake Maye's performance come from some of the best quarterbacking seasons in NFL history, not from his contemporaries in the MVP race today.

That should be reflected by voters for the NFL awards as we put a bow on 2025, and the regular season.

In the past, it has been. Now, it seems we’re looking for reasons not to — that argument is a lot tougher to make.

Hopefully, we won’t have to hear too much more of it.

This New Year, I’m hoping that voters get it right — and Drake Maye is awarded the MVP recognition that he's earned.

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