Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza is the consensus No. 1 pick, and the Las Vegas Raiders earned the top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft with a 3-win season. 

For the next few months, Mendoza's name will be linked to the Raiders and minority owner Tom Brady and whoever they hire as their new head coach, and rightfully so. 

It's safe to say the Geno Smith-Pete Carroll-Chip Kelly experiment failed miserably in Las Vegas, and Smith's future as the QB1 looks as bleak as ever. 

ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. released a mock draft on Wednesday, and, to no surprise, he had the Raiders selecting Mendoza. 

"This is an easy one. The Raiders traded a third-round pick for Geno Smith less than a year ago, but it hasn't worked out. He finished the 2025 season ranked 27th of 28 qualified passers in QBR (34.1), throwing 17 interceptions over 15 games. And with a new coach (to be determined) coming in, it's time for a fresh start," Kiper wrote. 

"Mendoza could join Joe Burrow and Cam Newton in going undefeated for the season, winning the Heisman Trophy and the national championship, and going No. 1 in the draft all inside a 12-month window," Kiper added. 

It's been a massive year for Mendoza, and barring a mammoth change, he should be the first name called in April's draft. 

Sure, there are questions about Mendoza and how he will transition to the NFL. He played well at Cal, but it is no secret that the 2025 season at Indiana was an outlier in every matter. 

He did win the Heisman Trophy, and it was well-deserved, but the tape speaks for itself, as Kiper suggests. 

"I see great ball placement on the tape, and he's a no-brainer to begin Round 1. Las Vegas could start to build something offensively here with Mendoza, running back Ashton Jeanty and tight end Brock Bowers."

And, Mendoza turned all the heads with a one-of-a-kind effort in the title game as he barreled into the endzone with everything on the line. 

Dante Moore's decision to stay at Oregon for another year makes Mendoza the easiest choice in recent memory, or at least that's what it should be, for the Raiders. 

Could they get trade offers? Sure. Do they take it? Who knows, but being able to select Mendoza and solidify the QB position after a revolving door as of late is a smart move by the Raiders. 

After all, as Kiper said, it's an "easy one."