Mendoza’s Success Will Depend On Executing Short Throws

No one knows quite how Fernando Mendoza's first NFL start will go, but we go have some evidence of how the Las Vegas Raiders rookie quarterback can succeed. Eric Karabell of ESPN recognized this in a piece about Mendoza’s fantasy value, and it’s a very good point, especially given that the quarterback may not be ready, per the writer. 

Karabell’s basic formula had Mendoza using the same formula Cousins used, which is going with play-action passing and leaning heavily on tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty as a receiver out of the backfield to get him in open space. 

Coach Klint Kubiak has indicated that the entire playbook will be open for Mendoza when he takes the field on Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks, and as such the Raiders might not have to alter that basic game plan at all. Karabell added that the Raiders are eighth in points this season, and they don’t think Mendoza will fail, so why should we? 

The counter to this is what will happen in the red zone, assuming Mendoza is consistently able to get the Raiders there. Things tighten up a lot, and that’s often where rookie quarterbacks also tighten up when they go to make decisions, especially under pressure. 

We’ve already seen how this could work. Mendoza’s one drive so far was a garbage-time special against the New England Patriots in a blowout loss with the Raiders far behind. The backup QB dinked and dunked his way down the field, then failed in the red zone, although he did get close to a fourth-down conversion on a scramble run that fell short. 

That will lead to field goals instead of touchdowns, which will be different for the Raiders. They’ve gotten used to Cousins throwing for touchdowns, but Mendoza will have a tough time duplicating that. Fortunately the Seattle offense isn’t explosive with Drew Lock at quarterback, which could allow the Raiders to stay in the game. 

The Seattle defense has been lauded for its fierceness, but Karabell also played contrarian there, noting that the Seahawks have given up over 30 points three times to quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy and Marcus Mariota. Those are all veterans, so that’s the big difference. 

The overall point is that if Mendoza can execute the short passing game, the Raiders will have a puncher’s chance, especially if they can keep from getting behind early.