The Las Vegas Raiders have a game this week that's tougher than it looks on paper.
The Las Vegas Raiders came up big defensively against gunslinger quarterback Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers, but they’re about to have a very different experience against a quarterback nobody knows about.
That would be Tyler Shough of the New Orleans Saints, and he’s helped turn the Saints into a real football team. That should sound all too familiar to Raiders fans, who are seeing the same thing with Kirk Cousins taking snaps and making good decisions.
Shough’s backstory is fun, and it’s somewhat surprising that more people haven’t heard of him. He’s quickly changing that, though, and the Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions found out just how dangerous Shough can be when they played the 1-1 Saints.
Ted Nguyen of The Athletic did an interesting take on Shough that included some tape study, and it’s well worth going there on what he came up with as the Raiders prepare for their Week 3 matchup in New Orleans.
Shough’s specialty is fourth-quarter comebacks. He led the Saints to a win against the Ravens despite facing an eight-point deficit, and he now has 662 yards to go with five total touchdowns.
The good news for the Raiders is that Shough is bad early in games. How bad? Per Nguyen, his EPA per dropback in the first three quarters is -0.31. In the fourth quarter and overtime, however, it jumps to 0.72.
The difference on tape is that Shough stops settling for checkdowns late in games and starts pushing the ball downfield. This should also sound familiar to Raiders fans, as they watched Cousins do the same thing against the Chargers last week and have success.
The offensive specifics are different, though. In the first three quarters, he targets his running backs on 32.1% of his passes, per Nguyen, and many of these throws are simple checkdowns
Shough’s big strength is that he definitely has the arm talent to make tight-window throws downfield. The Raiders can expect the Saints to be more aggressive earlier in this game, and they’ll need to mount a pass rush to counter that.
That’s where things get tricky, though. Shough is mobile, and he’s dangerous when he’s on the run. The Saints are a much better team than the Miami Dolphins and Chargers at this point in the season, although it’s shocking to write that about LA.
It’s going to be a challenge, and this is new terrain for the Raiders under Kubiak. We’re about to find out what he’s like as a motivator after experiencing success, and corralling Shough is going to be a big part of the game plan.
