The draft experts and team builders already have it figured out. Now that the Las Vegas Raiders are vying for the “lead” for the number one draft pick in next year’s draft, they should take a quarterback, most likely Fernando Mendoza of Indiana or Donte Moore of Oregon.
This would be a major mistake. If you want to see how it would work out, check out Cam Ward’s struggle with the Tennessee Titans this year. Ward is physically more gifted than either Mendoza or Moore, and both quarterbacks would be ranked behind Ward, but the Tennessee quarterback has struggled mightily.
Would it automatically work out the same for Moore or Mendoza? Maybe not, but it could actually be worse, if that’s possible to imagine.
The “why” part of this isn’t all that hard to figure out. The Raiders are a mess as an organization, and their roster is so full of holes that it would be almost impossible for either rookie quarterback to succeed.
Start with the coaching situation. It feels incredibly unlikely that current coach Pete Carroll will survive the season, but let’s say he does. Carroll has made it clear he likes veteran quarterbacks, and he seems particularly attached to quarterback Geno Smith, despite the Smith’s performance and the fact that the Raiders seem almost certain to move on from him.
Work the situation another way, then. Say the Raiders finally fire Carroll at the end of the season, which means another new coach with yet another new program would be coming in. That would mean Mendoza or Moore would get caught up in the backwash of the initial chaos, and given owner Marc Davis’s track record with coaches, it’s easy to imagine him hiring a guy like Brian Callahan who turns out to be in way over his head.
The new quarterback would have tight end Brock Bowers to throw to, but not much else. Tre Tucker has had some moments, and Jack Bech has shown a little now that he’s getting playing time, but this is a young receiving corps with nothing close to a number one at the moment.
The alternative wouldn’t be desirable, but it would make a lot more sense. Trading back could give the Raiders a lot of desperately needed draft capital, assuming Davis is going to trust GM John Spytek to make another year’s worth of selections. The cycle of drafting and ruining another young quarterback would take at least 2-3 seasons, and that’s the last thing the fan base wants to see right now.