The Las Vegas Raiders have a lot of important moves to make this offseason, and since it’s Black Monday we might as well start with the obvious one. Coach Pete Carroll will undoubtedly be fired or “retiring” today, and if that doesn’t happen then it really is time to put all that Silver and Black gear on eBay and hope for the best.
But there’s another decision that’s just as important—maybe even more so, given that Carroll’s future has been fait accompli for well over a month now. It’s about that $18.5 million cap hit the Raiders will incur if they decide to simply move on from quarterback Geno Smith, which would be the logical thing to do given Smith’s disappointing performance this year.
Logic often has little to do with big quarterback decisions in the NFL, though, and that’s definitely the case with Smith. Nearly every rumor currently making the rounds has the Raiders drafting a quarterback with the number one pick in this year’s draft, even though the logic behind that call is just as sketchy.
The Raiders definitely don’t want Smith around. He turned into an interception machine this year, and the last thing Las Vegas wants is to have a quarterback who led the league in picks mentoring any quarterback they select. And given that Smith has spent most of his career as a backup, it’s unlikely he’d be willing to go back to that role this year, especially given the way Carroll stuck with Smith and talked him up during his disastrous season.
So what’s the right way to deal with that cap hit? This is basically a “hold ‘em or fold ‘em” situation, and it’s important to remember that quarterback desperation is an ongoing fact of life in the NFL.
Given that stipulation, this is likely a “hold ‘em.” Some team will get desperate enough to want Smith around; it’s just impossible to know what the circumstances are for that just yet. It might involve an injury, a retirement or the need for a competent backup who can step in and basically just run an offense, and Smith can meet that need, albeit just barely.
The trick is waiting for it to happen. Desperation drives quick, bad decisions across the league, and the Raiders have been as guilt of this as any franchise in the NFL. Staying patient will be the key, but there will be a scenario some time between now and this summer to deal Smith and lower his cap hit, more than likely as a throw-in part of another move.