NFL teams are gathering at the combine this week, and much of the focus is on quarterback maneuvering. The conventional wisdom says that if you don’t have a top quarterback you’re not going anywhere, and that puts the Las Vegas Raiders in particular in an intriguing bind.
Sam Walder of ESPN put together an early list of each team’s QB1, and his selection reflects the Raiders dilemma, so let’s explore who he chose and what the specific issues are.
Walter had his quarterbacks put in different tiers, and the one the Raiders occupied was labeled “Locked In.” Part of this was because of Fernando Mendoza, mostly due to the assumption that the Raiders will take the former Indiana Hoosiers quarterback with the top pick in the draft in April.
But the QB1 assumptions isn’t a lock at all at this point. New coach Klint Kubiak has said nice things about Mendoza, but Kubiak knows full well how difficult it would be with a rookie quarterback, especially with a roster that needs the amount of work that the Raiders’ does.
There are other possibilities as well, although they’re not great. One is current quarterback Geno Smith, who was horrible last season, but the Raiders are locked into Smith for $18 million in 2026, plus another $8 million in injury-guarantee money that kicks in in March.
Kubiak has had some success with Smith in Seattle, so in theory he could elect to use Smith as a placeholder/bridge quarterback, although the fan base would hate this with a passion.
There may be other options available as well. The quarterback carousel has really just started to spin, and there are all sorts of names floating around. Most of them aren’t top tier possibilities, of course, but Kubiak doubtless has his own evaluation system in place that’s different from the rumor-based speculation that’s out there right now.
The possibility of trading back is also out there if Kubiak doesn’t like Mendoza for some mysterious reason. This feels somewhere between unlikely and impossible at the moment, but it could happen, especially since the Raiders could get at least two additional number-one picks if they chose to go this route.
The point of all this is that nothing’s a done deal at this point. The pivot point right now is next month; if the Raiders cut Smith before his injury money comes due, we’ll know the Raiders are moving on. At that point it would make sense to lock in Mendoza, unless Kubiak has a dramatic surprise up his sleeve.