The Las Vegas Raiders are about to draft Fernando Mendoza, but would he be the consensus top pick in any other draft?
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is sitting in proverbial catbird seat right now. He’s the consensus top pick in the upcoming draft for the Las Vegas Raiders, and he’s the top quarterback in what basically amounts to a two-QB draft.
Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk mentioned this in a piece that appeared today, and he made another good point to add to the argument. The other quarterback who’ll get taken in the first round is Ty Simpson of Alabama, and Smith noted that it could be a long time before a third quarterback hears his name called.
The next best quarterback is Garrett Nussmeier of LSU, but Smith added that Nussmeier’s stock fell during his fifth and final year at LSU as he took too many sacks and struggled with injuries. Nussmeier came into the 2025 season with first-round possibilities, but now Smith has him as a mid-round pick. No one thinks he’s going to be a great NFL quarterback, but there could be a team that takes a flyer on Nussmeier with a higher pick.
Cade Klubnick of Clemson was another QB with first-round potential, but Clemson had such a bad year in 2025 that Klubnick now projects as a Day 3 selection. Carson Beck of Miami probably helped his stock by staying at Miami this year, according to Smith, but no one who’s seen some of his clueless turnovers thinks he’s anything better than a mid-round selection.
Given all this, it’s not surprising to see Mendoza’s status at the top of the draft, but it’s an interesting thought experiment to drop him into any other draft year and project where he likely would have landed. He’s projected to be a “solid NFL starter” according to Pro Football Focus, but it’s hard to find another draft where he’d be a consensus pick right out of the gate in the draft.
The Raiders are making an interesting bet with Mendoza. New coach Klint Kubiak just won a Super Bowl as an offensive coordinator with Sam Darnold, and he knows that the only elite quarterbacks with rings right now are Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford. Other teams are getting it done with quarterbacks who have their share of middling moments, and that also describes Kirk Cousins to a T.
Kubiak loves Mendoza’s leadership skills, but he’s not alone there. Nearly everyone does, but it remains to be seen if he’s a quarterback who can be mentored and coached up to get the Raiders into the playoffs, which would be the first step here.