The Saints are rolling, and the Jets are reeling.
The Saints are on a roll with two consecutive wins, while the New York Jets are fast-forwarding into the offseason and the NFL Draft. The two teams may have similar records, but their trajectories couldn't be more different. The Saints are evaluating their possible future quarterback in Tyler Shough, and the Jets are on their third quarterback in 2025, Brady Cook.
It isn't all good news for New Orleans. Rookie running back Devin Neal is out for the season, and upstart wide receiver Devaughn Vele has been ruled out. Still, the Saints are 4.5-point favorites at home. Here are three things to watch for on Sunday:
Brady Cook's ADOT
While the Jets are fourth in the NFL in short throw rate at 71.5%, that number is inflated from Justin Fields' time as the starter. Tyrod Taylor stepped in and definitely threw the football deeper, but Brady Cook isn't afraid to test all levels of the field. Don't let the bottom-of-the-league number of downfield throws fool you; Cook will put pressure on the Saints' secondary.
The Saints are middle of the road in defensive EPA against intermediate (0.41, 15th) and deep throws (-0.10, 16th). They have faced the third-highest rate of deep throws at 14.5% and the Jets don't exactly have deep threats, but you can expect some play-action shots from Cook and the Jets offense.
Tyler Shough's late game magic
The Saints have pulled off back-to-back thrilling wins led by Shough late in games. The Saints' offense's late-game success rate is 25th in the NFL at 41.2%, but I'm willing to bet that number has jumped the last few weeks with Shough under center. The Jets' defense has been stout down the stretch of games. Their late-game success rate ranks seventh in the NFL at 41.3%.
Even though they are battle-tested tested the last few weeks, it may not be wise to go down to the wire against this Jets defense.
The battle of 11 personnel
The Jets and Saints resemble each other personnel-wise. New Orleans is second in the NFL in 11 personnel usage (68.9%), with the Jets at number five (67.1%). Neither team has been particularly efficient, but it's clear both offenses prefer 11 personnel.
The Saints' defense is 18th in defensive EPA at 0.03, and the Jets are 28th at 0.14. Both teams have faced 11 personnel at a similar rate of 51.4% for the Saints and 49.5% for the Jets. Those numbers are 24th and 26th, respectively.