The New Orleans Saints enter Week 13 with a 2-9 record and face a climb.

The Miami Dolphins come in at 4-7 after a bye week, following a narrow 16-13 overtime win against the Washington Commanders.

With playoff aspirations fading, this game takes on heightened significance for Miami.

Analysts model the Dolphins with a roughly 71 % win probability in this contest, per Dimers.

From Miami’s perspective, this is a must-win. With six games left remaining, falling further behind would severely reduce their postseason chances.

The bye week allowed the Dolphins to regroup and give extra attention to shoring up weaknesses, particularly on defense and in protecting their quarterback.

Meanwhile the Saints are now in more of a “play for pride” mode, and getting a win away against a team that still has something to play for would be a major morale boost.

At 2-9, New Orleans enters Week 13 knowing the postseason is off the table, but games like this still offer a chance to build identity and momentum heading into December.

The biggest challenge has been offensive inconsistency, with long stretches where the unit struggles to sustain drives or capitalize in the red zone.

Against Miami, the Saints need cleaner execution, fewer stalled possessions, and a greater reliance on playmakers to generate explosive moments.

Defensively, the Saints have shown flashes but have been unable to control games for four full quarters, which puts pressure on the offense to keep pace.

Facing a Dolphins team coming off a bye, New Orleans must be disciplined, win situational downs, and create turnovers to stay competitive.

Even in a season that has not met expectations, road games against motivated opponents become opportunities for younger players to show their own growth as a team player and for the team as a whole to demonstrate resilience.

The Dolphins will want to exploit any breakdowns and maintain their advantage in key phases such as third-down and red-zone.

Per StatMuse, the Saints have allowed more points per game and fewer total yards than the Dolphins, underscoring New Orleans’ uphill battle. An early-season slump can really put teams in desperation mode.

For Miami, this is arguably the most important home game of the season so far.

For New Orleans, it is a chance to show resilience and fight for relevance.

The historical series between the teams is close (Miami leads 7-6) but recent dominance is clearly shifted toward the Dolphins.

Given the records and momentum, the Dolphins are expected to win. But if the Saints can force turnovers or get big plays early, they could make it competitive.

Kickoff is set for 1:00 PM ET and will be streaming live on FOX.

Expect the Dolphins to press their advantage, and the Saints to try to slow the game and stay within reach.

Miami holds the favorable position, but in the NFL every game matters until the final whistle.