The NFL Draft has changed Las Vegas' mind.
2026 is a big year for the New Orleans Saints. Following their finish in 2025, Kellen Moore and new franchise quarterback Tyler Shough have eyes on a postseason berth. With a successful free agency and very solid draft class, the Saints are going to be a sexy pick to win their division. Before the draft, Las Vegas set the Saints implied over/under win total at 6.5. Fast forward to today and that number is up to 7.5.
But is it wise to take the over?
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, taking the under on the 7.5 wins is at +100. At the very least, Vegas believes in the Saints this season as the over doesn't net you money without a significant investment.
Let's take a crack at mapping out Saints victories.
The first two games for New Orleans are very difficult and finishing that two game stretch at 1-1 would be a major accomplishment. Two road matchups with Detroit and Baltimore is about as tough as it gets for any team. Two losses is completely possible, but one win would be huge. Let's start New Orleans off 0-2 for arguments sake. They'll be underdogs in both those matchups.
The next two matchups are a chance for two consecutive wins against Las Vegas and Atlanta. I doubt anyone would bet against New Orleans on October 5th. The Saints should be 2-2 with wins over the Raiders and Falcons.
Minnesota, the Giants, Pittsburgh (with Aaron Rodgers), and Cleveland are the next four games. The Saints can win all four of those games, but this is the NFL, and parity is at an all-time high. Let's figure this conservatively at 3-1, but the Saints should take all four games.
After eight weeks, the Saints could be 5-3. There's no need to go through the rest of the schedule if that's the record because the team should be able to win at least three of the next ten games. That puts you over 7.5 wins.
The Saints should be able to rack up wins in their division. Giving out a prediction on a season in May seems silly, but if you're looking to win some money, I'd put some on the Saints' win total.
New Orleans could have a down season and still cash the ticket. Finishing with eight wins and nine losses still is a winning ticket. However, I don't believe that will happen.