The New Orleans Saints opened the Kellen Moore era with a 20-12 loss at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals. A lack of downfield passing until late in the game was a point of consternation for many pundits during and after the game. In this article we'll take a look at whether or not that’s a bug or a feature of Kellen Moore offenses and how it impacts the best deep threat on the Saints.
First, let’s get an explanation out of the way. In this discussion, we’ll be leaning heavily on a stat called aDOT. This stands for average depth of target which is simply how far beyond the line of scrimmage the intended receiver was when targeted on a pass by their quarterback. Now that we’ve gotten that out of the way, we can dive in fully.
One of the major selling points of the Kellen Moore hiring was his ability to maximize the personnel on his roster. After Week 1 though, there were some serious questions about his usage of one player in particular.
Rashid Shaheed has been touted as one of the better deep threats in football the last couple of years. This reputation is backed up by his aDOT of 18.1 in 2024 and 14.6 in 2023. Curiously though, his aDOT for Week 1 was 8.7, not even half of his 2024 posting. Was that by design, or was it simply an incidental one game dip?
We might be able to get an answer for that by looking at past Kellen Moore offenses. As the coordinator for the Eagles in 2024, Jalen Hurts had an aDOT of 8.1 which was good for No. 21 among quarterbacks with at least 130 pass attempts.
That’s low, but Hurts isn’t exactly known for his rocket arm. While the coordinator with the Chargers in 2023 though, Moore’s quarterback Justin Herbert (known league wide for his impressive arm talent) also finished below league average with an aDOT of 8.2. It’s interesting to note that Hurts’ aDOT was 8.9 that season, tied for No. 8 in the league.
Going back one year further, as the offensive coordinator for the Cowboys, Moore’s play calling led Dak Prescott to finish with an aDOT of 8.6. Higher than Herbert and Hurts, but still only good enough for No. 15 in the league.
Looking at these numbers, it seems safe to say that a Kellen Moore offense will likely be average to below average in aDOT. That doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be unsuccessful (the Eagle won it all in 2024 after all), but it does mean that, unless Moore changes the ethos he’s shown as a playcaller the last three years, he isn’t likely to get the most out of a deep threat like Shaheed.
It's bound to be an interesting process as New Orleans continues to figure out who they are and as Moore grows into a new role. It’ll be interesting to see if that process truly includes an adjustment to personnel, or if Moore expects his personnel to adjust to him.