Fresh off a bruising defeat against Detroit, New Orleans faces a nightmare matchup in Baltimore as the league's most physical rushing duo threatens to expose lingering defensive cracks.
The New Orleans Saints spent Monday talking about the positives from a wild 31-30 overtime loss in Detroit. By Wednesday, the conversation needed to change. Tyler Shough's 410 passing yards were impressive, Chris Olave looked like a legitimate game-changing No. 1 receiver, and New Orleans showed plenty of fight after falling behind by three touchdowns. But none of that changes the problem sitting directly in front of the Saints this week.
They have to stop the run. And the timing couldn't be worse.
After allowing Jahmyr Gibbs to rush for 156 yards on 29 carries Sunday, New Orleans now travels to Baltimore to face Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson. The Baltimore Ravens opened their season by beating Indianapolis 41-23 while generating 506 total yards.
If the Saints don't fix what happened against Gibbs, Baltimore has the personnel to turn Week 2 into a very long afternoon.
Derrick Henry Is Already Rolling
Henry apparently didn't need a warm-up game. The 32-year-old carried 24 times for 144 yards and three touchdowns against Indianapolis, averaging exactly 6 yards per attempt. He also caught one pass for 19 yards. Even more concerning for New Orleans is how Henry accumulated those yards.
According to Next Gen Stats data cited by Baltimore, Henry gained 110 rushing yards before contact, the third-highest single-game total of his career. He was contacted at the line of scrimmage on only 8.3% of his carries, his lowest rate since joining the Ravens.
That's the part Saints defensive coordinator Brandon Staley should have circled. You don't want Henry building momentum. A 252-pound running back is difficult enough to tackle. Giving him three or four yards to accelerate before first contact turns a defensive problem into a physics problem.
New Orleans has to win earlier in the play.
Gibbs Exposed Something Detroit Couldn’t Ignore
The Saints allowed Detroit to rush for 165 yards on 33 attempts in Week 1. Gibbs accounted for nearly all of that production and scored two touchdowns.
That's confirmed. My concern is what Baltimore saw on film. NFL coaches don't ignore weaknesses. If Detroit successfully attacked New Orleans between the tackles or found favorable running lanes on the perimeter, Baltimore will test those same areas until the Saints prove the previous week was an exception.
And Henry isn't the only problem.
Lamar Jackson Makes the Math Different
This is where Baltimore becomes especially difficult. Jackson completed 17 of 25 passes for 324 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions against Indianapolis, producing a 124.2 passer rating. He also ran seven times for 40 yards and a touchdown.
So load the box against Henry? Fine, but Jackson can throw behind it.
Play lighter personnel to defend the pass? Possibly, but Henry gets favorable numbers.
Over-pursue Henry on the read? Cool, and Jackson keeps it to scramble for 5+ yards.
That's why Baltimore's backfield creates headaches before the football is even snapped. The Saints don't necessarily need to shut both players down. That's an unrealistic standard.
They need discipline. Set the edge. Maintain gap integrity. Don't turn a 4-yard Henry carry into 14 because somebody abandoned his responsibility trying to make the highlight tackle.
Cameron Jordan’s Status Becomes Important
New Orleans played Week 1 without Cameron Jordan because of a hamstring injury. As of Wednesday morning, the Saints had begun preparations for Baltimore but had not yet published their first official Week 2 injury report. The team was scheduled to hold media availability Wednesday afternoon.
Until that report is released, Jordan's Week 2 status shouldn't be assumed. But his potential return would certainly help.
Jordan's value isn't limited to sacks. Against Baltimore, setting the edge, forcing runs back inside and maintaining assignment discipline could be just as important as pressuring Jackson. New Orleans needs all the experienced bodies it can get.
The Saints Can’t Put Everything on Shough Again
There's another reason the run defense matters. Tyler Shough shouldn't need another 400-yard afternoon simply to keep New Orleans competitive.
The Saints already learned in Detroit that Shough can bring them back. Now help him. Force Baltimore to punt, create shorter fields and keep Henry from controlling the clock.
Give Shough opportunities to play quarterback instead of constantly playing catch-up. That's how New Orleans turns an encouraging offensive performance into an actual win.
My Two Pennies
Forget the 410 passing yards for a minute. Forget the failed two-point conversion. If I'm looking for the one statistic that matters most heading into Week 2, it's 156.
That's how many rushing yards Gibbs put on the Saints. Now Derrick Henry is waiting. And behind Henry is Lamar Jackson. Baltimore just produced a 300-yard passer, a 100-yard rusher and a 150-yard receiver in the same game for the first time in franchise history.
The Saints don't need perfection Sunday, but rather they need resistance. Hit Henry before he gets moving to stop his momentum. Keep Jackson inside the defensive structure. Force Baltimore into third-and-long and give Chase Young and the pass rush a chance to attack.
New Orleans showed plenty of heart in Detroit, but against Baltimore, I'm looking for something different. I'm looking for some muscle and body because you are going to need that with Henry and Jackson.
If the Saints can't stop the run, Tyler Shough might need another 400 yards just to keep them in the game. And that's not a sustainable way to win football games.
