Sep 10, 2026 6:21 PM

One NFL.com analyst explained why he's picking the Pittsburgh Steelers to beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 1.

The Pittsburgh Steelers begin the 2026 season against the Atlanta Falcons in Aaron Rodgers' final NFL campaign. 

NFL.com's Jeremy Bergman, Brooke Cersosimo, Gennaro Filice, Bobby Kownack and Dan Parr believe the Steelers will beat the Falcons in Week 1. Here is why Bergman picked Pittsburgh:

"One of these teams is comfortable in its own skin. The other has zero identity at the most important position in sports. Mike McCarthy and Kevin Stefanski both enter Sunday's game with something to prove out of the gate, starting their third and second stints as head coaches, respectively. McCarthy benefits from having a familiar friend at the controls of his offense in greybeard Aaron Rodgers. Stefanski, on the other hand, spent the summer playing coy about who his starting QB would be between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. The latter, who boasts more upside, only returned to practice two weeks ago, leaving Tagovailoa as Stefanski's only true option against Pittsburgh. Specified as only a Week 1 starter, Tua appears to have a short leash in Atlanta, about as long as Penix's recovery ... or 60 minutes on Sunday.

"Rodgers did not play at all in the preseason, so rust for the tinfoil man is a possibility. But once he warms up, the four-time MVP should have his way with Michael Pittman, DK Metcalf and Pat Freiermuth against a Falcons pass rush neutered by the loss of second-year standouts Jalon Walker (injury) and James Pearce Jr. (suspension)."

Rodgers is one of the best QBs in NFL history. He enters this season with 66,274 passing yards and 527 passing touchdowns in the regular season and 6,040 passing yards and 45 passing touchdowns in the playoffs. 

Rodgers will target Roman Wilson, D.K. Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington a lot this season. 

In 2025, Rodgers put up 3,322 passing yards, 24 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions last season. The future Hall of Famer completed 65.7% of his passes.

The Steelers won the AFC North last season but lost to the Houston Texans at home in the wild-card round of the 2026 playoffs.

A four-time MVP, Rodgers hasn't won a playoff game since the 2020 season, while the Steelers haven't won a postseason game since the 2016 season.

Rodgers, of course, will retire from the NFL after this season. Mike McCarthy and Rodgers won Super Bowl XLV against the Steelers as members of the Green Bay Packers.

Rodgers called it a "full-circle" moment to play for McCarthy again.   

“The fun thing, for me, is that this is a real full-circle moment for me and Mike — the closing of my career and the end of his career being back home in Pittsburgh,” Rodgers said, via The Athletic. "The surreal aspect of it has kind of drifted a little bit, but it’s still really special to hear that voice in my head that I’ve heard for so many years.”  

“Just to be able to take this final lap with him, it’s awesome,” McCarthy said. “You always want to do a great job, but now to do it with him in his last chapter, it’s special.”

Hall of Famer Peyton Manning won the Super Bowl in his final NFL season with the Denver Broncos. 

Let's see if Rodgers can do the same. 

Rodgers can become the fourth quarterback in NFL history to appear in 300 games (including the postseason), joining Tom Brady, Brett Favre and Drew Brees. He can also pass Manning (579) for third-most touchdowns thrown in NFL history.

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