Houston's explosive passing attack targets Arizona's struggling secondary. Exploiting defensive weaknesses promises another Texans victory.
The Houston Texans (8-5) are rolling, riding a five-game win streak into NRG Stadium for a crucial matchup against the struggling Arizona Cardinals (3-10). While the Cardinals' defense, led by coordinator Nick Rallis, is uniquely structured and possesses disruptive talent like safety Budda Baker and recent additions Josh Sweat and Calais Campbell, the Texans' elite passing game should be licking its chops.
Houston's offense, spearheaded by their efficient young quarterback, needs to approach this game with the mindset of aggressive, pass-first exploitation. The statistics don't lie: Arizona's defense is ranked 20th in passing yards allowed per game (224.3) and 24th in total yards allowed (347.4). Their defensive passing is significantly worse than their rushing, indicating a clear weakness in coverage.
Key Matchup: Texans Receivers vs. Cardinals Secondary
The biggest mismatch on the field is Houston's top-tier receiving corps against the Cardinals' secondary. The Texans should look to stretch the field early and often, forcing Arizona's defensive backs into high-leverage, one-on-one situations they are statistically ill-equipped to handle.
Exploiting the Perimeter: The Cardinals are one of the most pressured teams in the league, but their secondary still struggles in coverage. Expect the Texans to isolate their top receivers, such as Nico Collins, against the Cardinals' corners.
The Slot Advantage: If Arizona employs a nickel package, which they often do, the slot receiver will be a crucial target. The Texans' receiving depth should create a field day against the Cardinals' nickel defenders.
Winning in the Trenches: Managing the Cardinals' Pass Rush
While the Cardinals' overall defensive unit ranks 24th in yards allowed, their defensive line, featuring the massive presences of Calais Campbell and rookie Walter Nolen along with edge rushers Josh Sweat and Baron Browning, is built to generate disruption in their 3-4 alignment.
The Texans' offensive line, which has improved its protection metrics, must be prepared for exotic blitzes and disguised pressures—a hallmark of Rallis's scheme.
The Run Game as a Counter: A successful, early run game would be the perfect counterpunch. Establishing the run against an Arizona defense ranked 19th in rushing yards allowed per game (123.1) can keep the Cardinals' formidable pass rush off-balance and prevent them from dictating the down-and-distance.
Controlling Budda Baker: Budda Baker is a Defensive Player of the Year-caliber player who is all over the field, acting as a relentless force against both the run and the pass. The Texans' offensive coordinator must account for him on every play, likely through using a tight end or running back to draw his attention away from the primary passing concept.
The Verdict & Bottom Line
This is a game the Texans are expected to win. The Cardinals will likely play loose and aggressively, looking to force turnovers, but the statistical evidence points to a struggling defense.
The Texans' path to victory is clear, be patient, establish the run to neutralize the pass rush, and then relentlessly attack the Cardinals' vulnerable secondary. If C.J. Stroud can manage the Cardinals' defensive disguises and trust his top receivers to win their one-on-one battles, the offense should have no trouble putting up enough points for a sixth consecutive win.