Opinion: Should Nick Caserio Roll the Dice on Keon Coleman?

In the modern NFL, you don’t build a dynasty by playing it safe. You build it by identifying elite talent in "distressed" situations and providing the infrastructure for it to thrive. As we enter the 2026 offseason, Houston Texans GM Nick Caserio has a golden opportunity to do exactly that with Buffalo’s Keon Coleman.

While some see a "bust" in Buffalo, a Houston-centric view reveals a high-upside chess piece that could be the final ingredient in C.J. Stroud’s championship-caliber arsenal.

Last season, our offense was at its best when C.J. had a physical mismatch on the field. But with Tank Dell coming off a late-season knee injury and Christian Kirk likely heading for free agency after a quiet 13-game campaign, the depth behind Nico Collins is suddenly a major concern. Houston has a clear need for "X" receiver depth.

Keon Coleman is exactly the archetype we are missing. Standing 6'4" and 215 lbs, he isn’t a burner, but he’s a "power forward" on the gridiron. In Buffalo, he was asked to be a primary separator in a vertical offense. A role that didn't suit his 4.61 speed. In Texans offensive scheme, he wouldn't have to be. He could be our "Big Slot" or the physical presence on the boundary that allows Nico Collins to move more freely.

The price for a former 33rd overall pick has never been lower. Following a 400-yard sophomore slump, Coleman’s market value is cratering. Buffalo is reportedly eyeing elite targets like Jaylen Waddle or A.J. Brown, meaning they need to clear both roster spots and a bit of cap.

For Houston, this is a calculated gamble on a rookie contract.

The Financials: Coleman carries a cap hit of just $2.75 million for 2026. For a team looking to extend cornerstone players on defense, that's pennies for a potential WR2.

The Capital: With eight picks in the 2026 draft—including three in the top 64—parting with a 4th-round pick (potentially our selection from Washington or the Giants) is a negligible cost for a 22-year-old with Coleman's pedigree.

For Buffalo, trading Coleman before June 1st would actually result in a small cap savings of about $674,159, though they would swallow roughly $2 million in dead money. If Nick Caserio decides to pull the trigger, the most realistic package would likely center on Houston's mid-round draft capital. Houston possesses significant assets, including four picks in the top 69 of the 2026 draft.

We’ve seen what C.J. Stroud can do with receivers who can win at the catch point. Coleman’s best trait is his ball tracking and high-pointing ability. In Buffalo, he suffered from a lack of volume and a shifting offensive identity. In Houston, he’d be the third or fourth option in a precision-based passing game, feasting on single coverage while defenses obsess over Nico and a healthy Tank Dell.

If Buffalo is willing to move on from Coleman for a mid-round pick, the Texans should be the first ones on the phone. We don't need Keon to be a superstar. We need him to be a reliable, physical chain-mover who can capitalize on the gravity created by our other stars.

Caserio has the draft capital to burn and the roster stability to take the risk. It’s time to bring the Louisiana native back to the South and see what he can do with the best young quarterback in football.