It’s pretty unbelievable to think that this Houston Texans team could be a Week 4 loss away from its season essentially being over, especially considering the expectations it had entering the year.
But the math doesn’t lie. Not only has no team that started 0-3 under the 17-game schedule made the playoffs, but 0-4 is completely detrimental. That's especially true given that multiple of the early losses have come against divisional opponents.
If we assume that even having a chance to make the playoffs requires at least 10 wins in today’s NFL, then a loss in Week 4 would mean Houston would have to go 10-3 the rest of the way just to have a shot. That’s extremely unlikely, even if we go off the optimism many had about this roster back in September.
So while this isn’t literally a must-win game, for all intents and purposes, it is. Being 1-3 entering Week 5 is a completely different scenario than being 0-4.
This really feels like a week that could be remembered as the one that finally turned the season around for the Texans — or the one that buried the team before October even arrived. Especially with the way the Colts are playing, another loss would put Houston completely out of reach in terms of winning the AFC South. And even making the Wild Card would be extremely difficult.
And while the Texans have kept every game competitive, with two close losses and all three contests being within reach late into games, that doesn’t matter in the NFL. You win or you lose. This team might feel like it’s a few plays away from being 2-1 or even 3-0, but the reality is that it’s 0-3.
Now the Texans face a Tennessee Titans team that’s not particularly strong, led by a rookie quarterback, yet still looks more organized at the moment. If Houston can’t get it done on Sunday, then maybe it doesn’t deserve to be in the playoff conversation at all. That type of loss would be of the season-ending variety.
The season is on the line. And Week 4 will either be remembered as the Texans’ turning point, or the day it all slipped away. It all starts with C.J. Stroud getting back into a groove and his offensive weapons stepping up to match the success of the depleted defense. It takes both sides of the ball to win in this league, and Houston has learned that the hard way.