Oct 8, 2026 11:00 AM

Despite three blown fourth-quarter leads, Houston’s elite efficiency metrics suggest a historic outlier. Advanced data reveals a competitive roster capable of mirroring last season’s improbable playoff turnaround.

The Houston Texans are 0-4, and there is no way around how ugly that record looks. Houston has blown fourth-quarter leads in three games, including Sunday’s 34-30 loss to the Dallas Cowboys, leaving the team in a hole that very few teams have ever managed to escape.

Still, the Texans have been far more competitive than their record suggests. In fact, according to ESPN’s Aaron Schatz, Houston is one of the best 0-4 teams in NFL history when looking beyond the standings and examining how the team has actually played, "What if I told you that the Texans and Buccaneers have actually been close to NFL average when you break down the play-by-play and look at their efficiency? Houston ranks 17th in the league and Tampa Bay ranks 18th. There are 150 teams since 1977 that have started the season either 0-4 or 0-3-1, and out of all of them, Houston and Tampa Bay rank third and fourth in DVOA.”

That is a remarkable distinction for a team that has yet to win a game. Houston ranks 17th in overall DVOA, meaning its performance through four games has been much closer to average than the 0-4 record would indicate. Even more encouraging, the Texans’ offense ranks 13th in DVOA, according to Schatz.

The biggest issue has been the inability to finish games. Houston has held fourth-quarter leads in three of its four losses, putting itself in position to win before ultimately falling short. That makes the record particularly frustrating, but it also leaves room for optimism if the Texans can finally start making the necessary plays late in games.

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Houston also has some recent history worth remembering. The Texans began the 2025 season 0-3 before completely turning things around. They eventually finished 12-5, earned a playoff berth and won a postseason game. 0-4 is a bit harder to come back from, but the team is certainly still alive for the postseason.

That obviously does not mean this year's team will repeat what happened last season. An 0-4 start is considerably more difficult to overcome, and only three teams in NFL history have even finished .500 or better after starting 0-4.

But the numbers suggest Houston's record isn't representative of its actual level of play. The Texans have plenty to fix, especially defensively and in late-game situations, but they are not playing like a typical 0-4 team. That gives Houston at least some reason to believe this season is not over yet.

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